China about to be overtaken by India. According to the United Nations, which released estimates on Wednesday, April 19, India’s population is expected to exceed that of China by mid-2023. And this, of nearly 3 million inhabitants. India’s population will number 1.4286 billion compared to China’s 1.4257 billion, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report on the state of the world’s population.
According to official data released earlier this year, China’s population fell last year for the first time since 1960-1961, after a famine that began in 1959 left tens of millions dead in the following the errors of the economic policy of the “great leap forward”. Paradoxically, this decline in the population in China comes despite the relaxation of the birth control policy in recent years. Ten years ago, the Chinese were only allowed to have one child. Since 2021, they can have three.
This decline is generally attributed to the cost of living which has risen sharply in China, as has the cost of raising a child. The higher level of education of women also delays pregnancies.
“The demographic benefit of a country depends not only on the quantity (of population), but also on the quality. It does not only depend on the people, but also on their talent,” said Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Wednesday. China is “implementing a national strategy to actively respond to population aging, promoting the three-child policy and supporting measures, while actively responding to changes in population development,” he said. .
India has no official data on the number of its inhabitants, as it has not conducted a census since 2011. India’s census, which takes place only once a decade, was supposed to have take place in 2021 but had to be delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Logistical obstacles and political reluctance now prevent it from taking place, and it is unlikely that this large-scale exercise will take place soon.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government has been accused by critics of deliberately delaying the census so as not to release data on sensitive issues, such as unemployment, before national elections next year. India’s economy struggles to provide jobs for the millions of young people entering the job market each year. Half of the Asian giant’s population is under 30.
The country also faces enormous challenges in producing enough electricity, food and housing for its growing population. Its major cities are already struggling to cope.
According to the Pew Research Center, an American think tank, the Indian population has increased by more than 1 billion people since 1950, when the United Nations began to establish the demographic data. The UNFPA report also estimates that the world’s population will reach 8.045 billion by mid-2023.
Other countries, mainly in Europe and Asia, can expect a demographic collapse in the coming decades, according to UN data published last July on the evolution of the world’s population by 2100. In Africa, by contrast, the population is expected to grow from 1.4 billion to 3.9 billion by 2100, representing 38% of the world’s inhabitants, up from around 18% today, according to this data. .
Eight countries with more than 10 million people, mostly in Europe, including Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal and Romania, have seen their populations decline over the past decade. Japan is also experiencing a decline due to the aging of its population, with a drop of more than 3 million inhabitants between 2011 and 2021. As for the world population, it is only expected to decline from the 2090s, not without having first peaked at 10.4 billion people, according to the United Nations.
