The latest findings from the Monmouth University Poll show that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. Despite Trump being more aligned with the state’s political views, Harris is preferred among high-propensity voters, while Trump’s path to victory relies on turning out low-propensity voters. The current state of the U.S. Senate race also shows a slight advantage for Democrats.
In Pennsylvania, just under half of registered voters say they will either definitely or have already voted for Harris (42%) or will probably vote for her (5%). On the other hand, an equal number of voters express support for Trump, with 42% definitely or have already voted for him and 5% probably voting for him. Trump continues to lead among white voters without a college degree, while Harris has the edge among white college graduates and voters who are Black, Hispanic, and of other races.
The poll results indicate minimal movement from the previous poll conducted five weeks ago. While Harris’s support has decreased nominally by one percentage point, Trump’s total support has increased slightly. However, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute emphasizes that these shifts are within the margin of error and the race remains incredibly close.
Regionally, Trump is performing similarly to his 2020 numbers in the reddest parts of Pennsylvania, while Harris leads in the bluer southeast corner of the state. Different turnout scenarios highlight the potential impact of voter motivation on the final outcome, with Trump’s support among extremely motivated voters equaling Harris’s support.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey holds a slight edge over his Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Casey’s total support has remained steady, while McCormick has seen an increase in definite support. Split-ticket voting tends to benefit Casey, with more Trump voters indicating support for the Democrat than vice versa.
Pennsylvania voters are divided on whether Trump’s political views align with the majority of residents, while they are more negative about Harris’s views. Confidence in the fairness and accuracy of the 2024 election varies among voters, with Trump supporters less confident compared to Harris backers.
In the U.S. House election, Republicans hold a slight lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot test. The House race remains tight across different turnout scenarios.
Overall, the poll results provide insight into voter preferences and potential outcomes in the upcoming election. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted through a combination of telephone and online interviews with 824 Pennsylvania registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
