The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, has sworn in the ministers who will form the Government that will cease to exist in 14 days. The solemn ceremony planned for these cases became the penultimate act of the farce that the Law and Justice party (PiS) has insisted on representing with the approval of the Head of State.
The outgoing and incoming prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, will now have two weeks to find a majority in the Sejm (Lower House), something he himself considers unlikely. This weekend he declared that he gives himself a 10% chance of winning a vote of confidence in Parliament.
The PiS won the parliamentary elections on October 15 with 194 votes in the Sejm and does not have a coalition partner to give it a majority. On the other hand, the group formed by the Civic Coalition, the Polish People’s Party, Poland 2050 and New Left total 248 votes of the 460 that make up the chamber. These parties have signed a coalition agreement and their candidate for prime minister is the president of the Civic Platform and former president of the European Council, Donald Tusk.
Andrzej Duda, the president, comes from PiS and the fact that he has lent himself to what the opposition has described as an “embarrassing spectacle” reinforces suspicions of his interest in becoming heir to the leader of the aforementioned party, Jaroslaw Kazcinsky.
Refusing to entrust the formation of the Government to the formation with the most votes in the elections of October 15, despite having fallen far short of the parliamentary majority, would have been interpreted as a lack of loyalty among one’s own. Duda, likewise, was obliged to give PiS the time it demanded to try to form a government through the only way he could do it: by inciting transfuguism.
Thus, the PiS spokesperson stated that Morawiecki “has signs” of opposition deputies who want to join his Executive proposal. “The talks are taking place behind the scenes,” said Rafal Bochenek on Polskie Radio 24.
According to the spokesperson, the opposition deputies who are negotiating their integration into the Government proposal that Morawiecki will present to Parliament remain silent “because if they said it publicly they would be harassed.” “The final decisions will be made on voting day,” he said.
If there are turncoats, they will be from the PSL, a party that shares ideological affinity with the PiS, and especially its leader, Wlasislaw Kosiniak-Kamisz, has been repeatedly pointed out by Morawiecki as the most likely partner to try to form an alliance capable of forming a Government. From the ranks of the PSL they have denied any possibility of an agreement.
The designed fishing rod that Kaczynski has admitted to using has been that of a Government made up of experts, people who have not previously held office and politicians specialized in their respective areas. New faces and more than half women.
In recent weeks, Morawiecki had campaigned for a “coalition of Polish affairs”, a coalition without acronyms, with room for everyone but always under those of PiS. He argued for an Executive “significantly smaller, with fewer portfolios and made up of a large number of women.”
In addition to proposing a “national pact for well-being” to rival political forces to commit to maintaining social programs, such as birth support and two extra monthly payments for pensioners, that PiS implemented during its mandates.
“Social policy must be beyond political disputes,” says Morawiecki, willing to “apply points from the opposition’s electoral programs” to, as he explained, “form a kind of social contract.”
But despite his repeated offers to the opposition, and the “signals” he claims to have from certain deputies, the truth is that all parties have rejected him, including the Confederation formation. Duda offered them the presidency of the Sejm to facilitate talks with PiS.
Confederation, with 18 deputies among its members, has not stung. “We reiterate our statement that there is no possibility of a joint government,” she said. “There is no majority and, furthermore, we are critical of the government of Mateusz Morawiecki, with the concessions on fundamental issues for Polish sovereignty vis-à-vis the European Union and with the government’s economic policy,” declared a few days ago the vice president of the Sejm, Krzysztof Bosak, co-president of the Confederation and president of the National Movement.
The chances of Morawiecki’s government gaining the support of the majority of Sejm deputies are zero. “We know that this is an extremely difficult mission, but we will only know what will happen at the time of the vote,” declared former head of the Chancellery, Michal Dworczyk.
In PiS, as Morawiecki ventures, there is no conviction that in these two weeks left in the countdown the majority that the party needs to remain in power will be formed.
The last act will therefore be on December 11, when the majority of the Sejm votes ‘no’ to the prime minister and his government proposal. Only then will it be the turn of the opposition and Tusk, but it will not be at the initiative of Duda but of Parliament.
What happens with PiS will be another chapter. Polish analysts believe that his move to the opposition will be Morawiecki’s downfall. The winner of the failed delaying tactic in the handover of power is Duda. She has many options to succeed Kaczynski once his term as Head of State ends.
