Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first appearance on Monday since the end of the Wagner paramilitary revolt, addressing a forum devoted to industry and youth in a video released by the Kremlin. The video shows the president seated at a desk, without it being possible to determine where and when it was filmed. In the speech, he does not mention the armed mutiny that rocked Russia, but refers to the “challenges” facing the industry as a result of Western sanctions.
According to the Kremlin, he also spoke with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, both of whom expressed their “support” for the Russian leader following the armed rebellion.
The Wagner group assured that its headquarters in Saint Petersburg (northwest) was operating “normally”, while the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, noted that the paramilitaries would continue their operations in Mali and in the Central African Republic. The organization has also resumed its recruitment in certain regions of Russia, according to the state agency Tass.
For his part, the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, who had disappeared during the rebellion of the boss of Wagner, his pet peeve, reappeared Monday in a video inspecting forces engaged in Ukraine. However, it was not possible to determine when these images were filmed.
In another sign of this effort to return to normal, the authorities announced the end of the “counter-terrorist operation regime”, which gives greater powers to the security forces, in the Moscow region and in the Voronezh region, in the south of the capital, where Wagner units had entered and where exchanges of fire took place.
Prigozhin, a businessman who was an ally of Putin responsible for doing many of Moscow’s dirty tricks, ended his rebellion on Saturday night in exchange for the Kremlin’s promise of immunity for him and his men. But on Monday, Russian news agencies all reported that the criminal investigation against him for “calling for armed mutiny” was still ongoing. The mystery was total as to the whereabouts of the head of Wagner who has not communicated since Saturday evening and while, according to the Kremlin, he should go into exile in Belarus, which the person concerned does not has not confirmed.
Another enigma: what fate for the 25,000 men that Wagner says he has? Are they in their camps in Ukraine, or in bases in Russia? And will they come under the orders of the Russian Ministry of Defense, or remain autonomous?
Despite the appearance of normality on Monday, Wagner’s spectacular display between Friday night and Saturday night shook the country. If the coup ended as suddenly as it began, this crisis represents the greatest challenge that Vladimir Putin has faced since he came to power in late 1999. Scrutiny in all chancelleries, this crisis “reveals real cracks at the highest level of the Russian state, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday.
Wagner’s mutiny shows that the assault on Ukraine was a “strategic mistake”, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday. “Putin and the state have received a big blow that will have significant consequences for the regime,” said independent Russian analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. In launching his mutiny, Wagner’s leader promised to “liberate the Russian people”, targeting his two sworn enemies, Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, whom he accuses of having sacrificed tens of thousands men in Ukraine.
If Guerassimov has not appeared in public since the crisis, the images of Shoigu visiting troops in Ukraine released on Monday seem intended to ensure that he is in charge. We see the minister listen serenely to a general’s report, study maps and inspect Russian positions by helicopter.
Many analysts believe that the crisis in Russia could weaken Russian forces on the ground and benefit those in kyiv, which have been leading a difficult counter-offensive for several weeks. On Monday, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Ganna Maliar announced modest further progress, as the Ukrainian army nibbling 17 km of additional ground against Moscow forces, or 130 km² since the beginning of June. She said that the locality of Rivnopil, on the southern front, in the Donetsk region, had been taken over.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has ensured that it repelled all Ukrainian attacks and destroyed and killed a number of Ukrainian weapons and soldiers.