In its economic outlook presented on Tuesday, April 11, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates, according to a central scenario considered the most likely, a slowdown in global growth this year, which would stand at 2.8% after 3.4%. in 2022, with GDP growth of 1.6% in the United States, 0.8% in the euro zone and 3.9% in emerging countries, including 5.2% in China and 5.9% in India.
“The recent turmoil in the banking sector reminds us, however, that the situation remains fragile,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Once again, downside risks to the global economic outlook are dominating and the fog is thickening. »
In particular, he envisages a scenario described as “particularly pessimistic” and of which he estimates the probability at 15%, in the event of a “sudden tightening of financial conditions”, which would then see global growth fall to only 1% this year, which would mean a virtual stagnation in per capita income. It would occur in the event of a sudden aversion of major international investors to risk and a wave of massive distrust of investments deemed less secure.
Such a shock “could have spectacular repercussions on credit conditions and public finances, in particular in emerging and developing countries, worries Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. It would precipitate massive capital outflows, a sudden rise in risk premiums, an appreciation of the dollar following a frantic search for safe havens, and marked declines in global economic activity against a backdrop of falling confidence, consumer spending households and investments. »