According to a recent study by the International Data Corporation (IDC), the global personal computing device market is set to experience a 2.6% year-over-year growth in 2024, with shipments reaching 398.9 million units. While the traditional PC market is expected to remain steady at 261 million units, the tablet market is projected to see a significant 7.2% growth. This growth can be attributed to a refresh cycle and increased investments in projects that are expected to drive the market forward.
In terms of traditional PCs, the global market, excluding China, is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024. China, on the other hand, is facing various macroeconomic challenges, such as high youth unemployment, deflation, and a volatile real estate market, which have impacted the PC market negatively. However, tablet demand has proven to be more resilient in China, thanks to the efforts of companies like Huawei.
Anuroopa Nataraj, a senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, highlighted the aggressive competition in the tablet market, particularly from Android vendors. These vendors have been maximizing opportunities in emerging regions like Asia/Pacific, China, and Central and Eastern Europe. The forecast predicts an increase in adoption rates in the short term, driven by the introduction of newer tablet models with upgraded chips, larger screens, and enhanced connectivity.
Looking ahead, the replacement cycle for devices is expected to further boost growth in the tablet market. However, in the long term, the growth potential for tablets remains flat, as they face stiff competition from more powerful smartphones and limited functionality compared to PCs.
On the other hand, PCs are forecasted to grow by 4.3% year over year in 2025, driven by the end of support for Windows 10, which will prompt a refresh cycle among commercial buyers. This presents an opportunity for Apple to increase its market share, with projections showing growth from 9.1% in 2024 to 10.2% in 2026. Businesses are expected to use the PC refresh cycle as an opportunity to migrate some workflows to Mac.
AI technology continues to play a significant role in shaping the PC landscape, enhancing productivity and providing a personalized user experience. While North America, major countries in Asia/Pacific, and some Western European countries are expected to lead in AI PC adoption, the trend is largely driven by the need for new PCs rather than a specific demand for AI PCs. Jitesh Ubrani, a research manager with Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, noted that while AI has been a popular buzzword, it has yet to be a major purchase driver among PC buyers. Businesses are recognizing the importance of AI but are struggling to identify immediate use cases, opting for AI PCs as a means of future-proofing their operations.
The inclusion of a Neural Processing Unit (NPU) in PCs and the early hardware requirements for AI applications are leading to the development of more premium devices with increased memory and storage. This trend is expected to drive up average selling prices in the coming years. While the near-term outlook for AI PCs remains modest, the long-term trend suggests a significant increase in AI PC adoption as NPUs become standard features in lower-tier PCs.
In conclusion, the global personal computing device market is poised for growth in the coming years, driven by factors like the PC refresh cycle, increased investments in projects, and the demand for tablets in emerging markets. AI technology is also expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the PC landscape, although the immediate adoption of AI PCs remains limited. As the market continues to evolve, manufacturers will need to innovate and adapt to meet the changing demands of consumers and businesses.