The operators of the German gas storage facilities want to publish monthly level forecasts in the future. They currently expect Germany to get through the winter well. The 2023/24 season can also be looked at with some confidence. Hopes are pinned primarily on LNG deliveries.
According to the gas storage operators, Germany can survive the upcoming winter without a gas emergency. “If there are no extreme temperatures, Germany will get through the winter of 2022/23 well,” said the Energy Storage Initiative (INES) association. Theoretically, gas shortages “cannot yet be completely ruled out” – but given the current weather forecasts, such shortages are “extremely unlikely”. The storage facilities could also be “extensively” filled again for the coming winter. This depends primarily on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to Europe.
14 companies are represented in the association, which together represent more than 90 percent of German gas storage capacities. Currently, the memory is almost 100 percent full. The amount stored roughly corresponds to the gas consumption in January and February 2022. Even when demand is high, the storage facilities only make a small part of the gas supply available to the market. The larger part is secured by pipeline imports, which currently come mainly from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium.
The assessment is based on a scenario set up by the association, which, among other things, assumes the temperatures of 2016, which are rated as “normal”. In two other scenarios, possible gas supply situations with particularly warm and cold temperatures over the course of the year were also considered. In a particularly cold year, such as 2010, the storage level would be almost zero at the end of January. In February, the stores would be completely emptied. This scenario then assumes a gas shortage for February and March.
According to INES, however, all scenarios show that the storage tanks can be filled again extensively before the winter of 2023/2024, “even if a strong emptying took place this winter”. However, the possibilities of refilling would be particularly determined by the availability of liquefied natural gas for the EU internal market. The association intends to publish its models every month in the future. The next presentation is scheduled for December 9th.