Downgrade the growth forecasts for the Eurozone in 2018 and 2019
Draghi highlighted the risks of political uncertainty, protectionism, and the volatility,
The last meeting of the year the European Central Bank (ECB) has delivered few surprises today in Frankfurt. Mario Draghi, who faces the final stretch of his mandate, has committed to the roadmap that had already advanced in the summer and has announced that the entity will put an end to purchases of debt on December 19, although it will reinvest bonds that mature “for a prolonged period after the date on which it begins to rise the interest rates of the ECB and, in any case, during the time that is needed to maintain some liquidity conditions favourable, and a large degree of monetary accommodation”.
that Is to say, Draghi has opened a new stage in the monetary policy of the Eurozone which, more than to end the previous era, put a point and followed in the stimulus plan that has sustained the economic recovery of the region in recent years. It is a yes, but it is not. And this has also been the tonic that has permeated the messages of the Italian in his appearance after the meeting of the governing Council of the ECB: Europe continues to grow, but less and slower; risks remain important, but are more controlled; maintaining trust and confidence, but each time with more caution.
In this context, the institution has modified their forecasts for the coming years. In particular, it reviewed slightly upwards the inflation for this year and a low of 2019. On the contrary, lowering the growth forecasts for the euro zone to 1.9% by 2018 -compared to 2% predicted in September – and up 1.7% for 2019, -versus 1.8% previous-, if well maintained the forecast at 1.7% for 2020.
“Weakening” of the economy
in the light of these figures, Draghi has foreshadowed some concern about the “weakening” of the european economy that, as explained above, has been reflected in aspects such as lower external demand, or in specific factors of some countries and sectors.
however, the entity is confident in the strength of the fundamental macroeconomic, especially in the domestic consumption and business investment which, in the opinion of Mario Draghi, will be used to support the expansion of the Eurozone, and rising prices.
About the risks, the ECB president has assured that conditions in Europe have weakened “in an atmosphere marked by the increase of the overall uncertainty”, while at the specific level has identified the political instability, threat of protectionism, the vulnerabilities of the emerging countries and the volatility of the financial markets.
No changes in the types
Those markets have been this Thursday, very outstanding for any track that could be filtered on the future monetary policy of the ECB, especially on the expected rise in rates. And here, too, there were surprises: they will remain as up to now, at historic lows, at least until the fall of 2019. Therefore, we will apply a percentage of 0%, 0.25% and -0,40% in the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility, respectively.
all in all, Draghi has made a positive balance on the outcomes of the Quantitative Easing (QE) or Quantitative easing, the technical name of the great plan of purchases of public debt that was encouraged in march of 2015. “It has been the only momentum of the economic recovery in the euro area”, in a time when there were no other sources of growth, said the representative.
The program includes the purchase of sovereign debt, and other debt securities, public and corporate, so that the entity managed to inject money into the system and reduce the financial pressure on countries like Spain or Italy, in those moments harshly penalized by investors. In this period, the institution community has accumulated debt for a value of close to 2.6 billion euros.
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