Too warm and too sunny – that is the balance of the weather year so far. And that’s how it will continue in the coming days: It’s going to be an extremely friendly weekend for the most part, as ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander knows. However, not all models predict that it will stay like this – and some are even looking towards Christmas.
This year should be record-breaking in terms of weather. What does that mean in detail?
The weather year 2022 has so far been exceptionally sunny and much too warm. March, June, August and October in particular were extremely sunny and were all well above the long-term average. And because the first third of November has already fulfilled half of the sun target for the entire month and only January was the only month that was far too cloudy, we have already got almost 1950 hours of sunshine on average in Germany in the current year.
How much sun have the frontrunners brought so far?
In the sun statistics, the year 2018 with around 2015 hours of sunshine and the year 2003 with 2020 sunny hours of operation rank among others. That means: We are only missing about 80 hours of sunshine this year. By the way, normal in Germany are around 1500 to 1600 hours of sunshine a year.
How do the temperatures compare to the warmest years?
We experienced the warmest year since regular weather records began in the sunny and drought year 2018 with a good 2.2 degrees above the long-term average. This corresponds to an average temperature of a good 10.4 degrees. This year we are currently at an average temperature of 11.8 degrees. Calculated over the whole year, this corresponds to a positive deviation of 2.5 degrees.
That sounds like a big lead.
That’s the way it is. However, it is of course crucial how the coming weeks will go in terms of temperature. A massive cold situation could still have a decent downward effect.
Is such a cold spell foreseeable?
First of all – and that applies until around the middle of the month – it will remain far too warm. Then the weather computers repeatedly play with the idea that something can happen in terms of winter.
What calculations are in the room?
Some of the forecasts currently state that it will be noticeably cooler from the north-east and east, first in Eastern Europe and then also here in Germany. Even the first snowflakes down to the lowlands would therefore be possible.
Even with frost?
If that is indeed the case, then the nights would definitely be increasingly frosty. And even during the day, some weather computers are predicting some light permafrost in the lowlands as early as the end of November.
Will December continue to be so cold?
The experimental long-term calculations currently assess December 2022 about one degree too warm. Accordingly, it would initially become milder again after the turn of the month. What is exciting, however, is that there are current calculations that show another winter advance around December 20th. It would even be conceivable that there would be snow at the festival – if that were to actually happen. Because there’s still a long way to go.
From distant moments of winter to nearer cold snaps: Where is it really cold now?
For example in North America. The Northwest of the USA and large parts of Canada are currently experiencing the first real cold air push of the season. With sometimes icy nights and values ??down to minus 20 degrees as well as a bitterly cold wind, snow and even sometimes blizzard-like conditions. The pole of cold migrates across the Midwest to the east coast by the beginning of the new week; where the cold arrives much more tame in the east.
At the same time, a hurricane is raging over Florida – an extreme weather contrast, isn’t it?
It really doesn’t get much richer in contrast. Hurricane “Nicole” lands on the east coast of Florida, brings hurricane gusts and meter-high waves in muggy summer air at peaks of over 200 liters of rain per square meter locally, while the depths of winter break out in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and North Dakota. An absolutely blatant to explosive and sometimes dangerous general weather situation.
How will the weather situation develop in Germany in the coming days?
High “Charly” takes over, and in terms of weather we are between fog and sun, i.e. between gray and blue. With the sun, the calm November weather brings us highs of up to 17 degrees over the weekend. On the other hand, where fog and high fog persist more tenaciously, it ends at 7 to 11 degrees.
And at night?
We can expect single-digit lows and in the middle and in the south there is a possibility of light frost or ground frost in some areas. In places, frost cannot be ruled out – especially on bridges, at level crossings or in the area of ??forest clearings. In addition, dense fog fields with visibility of less than 100 meters are also preferred in the southern half.
What are the predictions for next week?
On Monday there will be occasional showers in the far west and southwest. Otherwise little changes at 8 to 17 degrees. Tuesday is generally more changeable in the western half. To the east, however, it will remain a dry sun-fog mix with 8 to 15 degrees. After that it will be more mixed overall and probably also noticeably cooler by the weekend at the latest.