Shortly before the end of the month, October shows its golden side. At the weekend it will be warm again, says ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander. But the first half of November will probably look very different.
ntv.de: October is approaching the home stretch – what are the prospects of saying goodbye?
Björn Alexander: Even at the weekend and on Monday, things often go from friendly to golden. It also stays exceptionally warm. On Friday, for example, with peaks of up to 27 degrees – so absolutely flawless summer values.
Is October a record month?
In the end, it will almost certainly be enough for second place in the October ranking. So far, October 2001 has been in first place with an average temperature of 12.5 degrees, followed by October 2006 with 12.18 degrees. Exactly the same mean temperature of 12.18 degrees has been recorded so far in October 2022. However, there are still more extremely mild days to come, which save on heating costs. Incidentally, the previous sun balance of over 110 hours was good for the photovoltaic system.
What about the rain?
After – fortunately – much too wet September, October makes another notch on the too dry side. Almost 50 liters per square meter corresponds to only about 80 percent of the usual amount.
But this is hardly noticeable in nature.
Correctly. However, nature is now only a little thirsty – the vegetation phase is almost over. And of course, much less water evaporates in autumn than in spring or summer.
Will November be any different when it comes to rain?
That’s what it looks like at the moment. Punctually with the turn of the month, our general weather situation also changes. The lows are increasingly affecting the weather from the west and ensure a changeable and sometimes very lively phase.
How much rain can we expect?
In the first third of November, the weather computers see quite widespread 30 to 50, in places also over 80 liters per square meter. The wind is sometimes strong, maybe even stormy. So it’s real autumn weather – after we last stayed in what felt like late summer.
What are the temperatures doing?
At least they are a bit more towards autumn, but with mostly 8 to 15 degrees, for example on the first weekend in November, they are still relatively mild for the time of year.
Keyword cooling and heating costs: what are the long-term trends for the winter?
Overall, the experimental long-term forecasts remain above average, i.e. too warm. December 2022 was calculated by the American Weather Service’s experimental long-term forecasts at around 0.5 degrees above the long-term average.
What calculations are there for the other two winter months?
In January 2023 it would therefore be around 1 degree and in February around 1.5 degrees positive deviation. It should be noted, however, that months that are too warm or much too warm always have cold sections – similar to the much-cited February 2021. First there was frost, snow and double-digit minus degrees, then a record-breaking spring awakening in the second half of the month.
From the long view into the future back to safer realms with the concrete predictions for the coming weekend. What are the details?
On Saturday cloud fields will pass through in the north and some rain is possible in places. In the meantime it is friendly in the middle and even sunny in the south after the fog has cleared. Only the desert dust, which the extremely mild air from the Sahara brings with it, could cloud the sky or make it appear milky. Temperatures reach 16 degrees during the Northern Lights and up to 26 degrees with plenty of sunshine in the South West.
And on Sunday?
In the south and in the east it is often foggy at first, but later more and more sunny. And the rest of the country is also beautiful in autumn with highs of between 21 and 26 degrees, which are almost suitable for summer and even unbelievable. In the mountains and in the north it is fresher with 16 to 20 degrees.
Then Reformation Day, Halloween and All Saints’ Day follow. With what weather?
In the southeastern half, it will remain apart on Monday and after the fog fields have cleared, there will be plenty of sunshine. Meanwhile, the west and north will continue with more clouds and occasional rain. In addition, it will be between 16 and 23 degrees. On Tuesday, the south and east remain in the dry weather advantage while the rest of the country remains more unsettled. The whole thing at slightly cooler values ??of 14 to 22 degrees.
What will the following days bring us?
On Wednesday and Thursday, especially in the western half to the south, it will be repeatedly mixed with showers, which can occasionally even be accompanied by thunderstorms. To the east it will remain dry for longer and sunny at times. We can expect 13 to 20 degrees on Wednesday and 12 to 19 degrees on Thursday.