Germany is in the middle of the summer wave, the number of corona infections is at a high level. However, because of the high level of immunization, there is currently no prospect of the healthcare system being overburdened, explain modelers from the Technical University of Berlin. But that could change in the fall.
Based on model calculations, a team of experts from the Technical University of Berlin assumes that there is a high level of immunization against the corona virus in Germany. “According to our model, a large part of the population has now built up immunity through vaccinations, infections and a combination of both,” said the modelers Sebastian Alexander Müller and Kai Nagel of the “Rheinische Post”.
Despite the high number of infections, the health system is currently not expected to be overloaded and a less restrictive policy seems reasonable. Nevertheless, “every infection carries the risk of a severe course,” warn the experts. “And according to previous data, this risk seems to recur with every infection.”
According to the model, the current summer wave will be dampened by the summer holidays because there are fewer infections in schools and at work. However, with the return to school and work after the holidays, the modelers expect more infections again. This has also been observed in recent years.
The situation could change fundamentally with the appearance of a possibly immune-resistant corona variant in autumn. “All in all, it can be said that, according to our model, a broad vaccination campaign has a strong infection-dampening effect, but would not be sufficient on its own to break such a wave,” said the modelers. In order to protect the health system, restrictions could then make sense again. In detail, this depends on the variant and the political goals.