So far, a clear trend has been observed: Statistically speaking, people in Germany are getting older. But the two corona years 2020 and 2021 are an exception. The statisticians from Wiesbaden report the influence of Covid-19 on life expectancy.
Life expectancy in Germany has fallen significantly since the beginning of the corona pandemic. The average life expectancy in 2021 was only 83.2 years for newborn girls and 78.2 years for newborn boys. The life expectancy of newborns has thus fallen sharply compared to 2019 – the last year before the pandemic – as reported by the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden: by 0.6 years for boys and by 0.4 years for girls.
The statisticians are certain: “The main reason for this development is the exceptionally high number of deaths during the corona waves.” The development of life expectancy indicates changes in mortality that are independent of the age structure. They are therefore particularly well suited for comparisons.
“We can trace the development directly back to Covid-19,” agrees Jonas Schöley, who researches the health of the population at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock. The numbers from Wiesbaden correspond one to one with the results of his research group. “To have such a sharp decline synchronized across the planet for two consecutive years is totally unusual and an absolute exception.”
According to the analysis, the drop in life expectancy at birth from 2019 to 2021 was particularly significant in eastern Germany. This value decreased by 1.3 years for boys and by 0.9 years for girls. In western Germany, the decline was 0.4 years for boys and 0.3 years for girls. The east German federal states were particularly hard hit by the pandemic from the second wave onwards.
There are two factors involved in this issue: because the proportion of older people in the population is increasing, the number of deaths has been expected to increase every year for around 20 years. At the same time – at least before the start of the corona pandemic – old people were getting older. “The effect of increasing life expectancy weakened the aging effect,” explains the Federal Office.
With both effects acting at the same time, the number of deaths rose by an average of one to two percent annually before the start of the pandemic. In 2020, the increase was more pronounced than in the last pre-pandemic year, 2019 – the statistics showed five percent more deaths. In 2021, the number of deaths rose by a further four percent.
“Based on 2019, a death rate of 960,000 to 980,000 would have been expected for 2021, i.e. an increase of 2 to 4 percent. In fact, the number of deaths increased by 9 percent from 2019 to 2021,” reported the statisticians. “In relation to the two years 2020 and 2021, there were around 70,000 to 100,000 additional deaths.” Almost 115,000 Covid 19 deaths were reported at the Robert Koch Institute in these two years.
The Federal Statistical Office explains that the effect in 2021 was less than in 2020 with the measures and changes in behavior during the pandemic. They may also have reduced deaths from other infectious diseases, such as the flu, in 2020 and 2021.
The question is whether the two exceptional years ended or just interrupted the trend of people getting older. Life expectancy in Europe has been increasing for more than 100 years, says Schöley, but during that time there have always been slumps, such as the two world wars or the Spanish flu. After that, you always returned to positive development.
Sometimes the crises even accelerated the trend. “After the Second World War you had antibiotics – maybe the mRNA technology on which most corona vaccines are based will help us in the fight against cancer.” However, there are also new risk factors, such as a possible economic crisis or political instability. “Then we can definitely wait longer for increasing life expectancy to return.”