For the time being, no onset of winter is in sight, says ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander. The presumably above-average warm October should have one good thing for German households: not much heating is required. Whether this also applies to the coming months is still questionable.
ntv: What is the short formula for our weather in the coming days?
Björn Alexander: After showers and thunderstorms along with a dreary dingy autumn on Friday, things are looking up again at the weekend. So the golden October gets the chance to top it up again – it also remains very mild to warm.
So we can continue to save on heating costs?
This is what it looks like. Because after the rather cool September, October 2022 is now preparing to become one of the warmest October months since records began. We are currently at a monthly mean temperature of 12 degrees. For comparison: October 2001 is the frontrunner with an average temperature of 12.5 degrees, followed by October 2006 with 12.18 degrees and October 2014 with 11.91 degrees.
What will the race for the top spots result in at the end?
Because there is no onset of winter in sight for the time being, it should almost certainly be enough for 3rd place, possibly even for 2nd place. The top spot, on the other hand, is unlikely to happen. In times of climate change, this is certainly a bad sign. But definitely helpful given the gas and energy crisis.
Heating and cooling are big topics at the moment – what trends are the weather computers currently showing for the upcoming winter?
The experimental long-term forecasts take a critical view of December in particular. From just slightly too mild to even a little too cold, everything is in the running. Only the significantly too warm forecasts are currently not included. January 2023 is also rated a little too warm at the moment – February, on the other hand, is well above average. In this respect, the prospects in terms of heating – according to the current status – are rather mediocre.
How long ago was the last average cold December in Germany?
In any case, the last rather average to slightly too cold December was already a few years ago. Measured against the comparison period, it was December 2012 or 2009, for example. December 2010, for example, was far too cold – some of you may also remember the White Christmas 2010. At that time it was almost 4.5 degrees colder than normal. A comparison of the frost days might help to get a better idea of ??this.
What are frost days?
These are days when the temperature drops below 0 degrees. There were an average of 19 of these in December 2009 and almost 30 in December 2010. In December 2012 there were 17. So that would be the order of magnitude that we would have to adjust to if the predictions just mentioned were correct. For comparison: In the very mild December months, there are only 6 to 10 frost days on average across Germany. So we would clearly feel that in the heating cost calculation.
From winter to autumn and the prospects at the weekend: what awaits us?
Saturday will be gray and wet for a long time, especially in the south. Meanwhile, the rest of the country is friendlier and increasingly dry. The temperatures bring it to 14 to 21 degrees.
And on Sunday?
New clouds with some rain or drizzle will appear later in the west. Otherwise a predominantly dry mix of sun and clouds awaits us. The temperatures climb to 16 degrees in Western Pomerania and 22 degrees in Breisgau.
What are the prospects for the next weather week?
On the front of the Atlantic lows we remain in the west to southwest and at times brisk currents with a super mild 17 to 22 degrees on Monday. It is partly loosened up, partly grey, with showers and isolated thunderstorms – especially in the west and south. Tuesday will be changeable and mild with 15 to 22 degrees. After that, the chances of a high increase and October 2022 could be on a golden home straight. In addition, it remains at very mild values.
On Tuesday next week Germany will experience a partial solar eclipse. Does the weather cooperate?
Unfortunately, the forecasts are not very good, especially in the west and south-west as well as in some regions of northern Germany. Accordingly, clouds with rain will predominate here. Otherwise it could be something with the view of the sky spectacle. Although a bit of fingers crossed certainly can’t hurt. The weather computers still evaluate the details quite differently.