More than four out of ten French people voted at least once for the National Rally, reveals an Ifop-Fiducial study for the JDD and Sud Radio which points to the demonization of the party, but also the absence of an incarnation likely to win the presidential election. .
According to this vast survey, 42% of French people say they have voted RN at least once in their life. They were 35% in 2021 and 30% in 2017, a sign of the continued anchoring of the far-right party.
In the presidential election of 2022, the RN candidate Marine Le Pen had certainly obtained nearly 41.5% of the vote against Emmanuel Macron. But due to high abstention, this score actually represents only 27.26% of registered voters, or just over one in four French people.
Among people who have already slipped in an RN report, workers (57%) and poor categories (51%) are over-represented.
More surprisingly, 28% of left-wing supporters, or 27% of people who chose Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2022, say they have already voted RN.
The study underlines that the desire to express one’s dissatisfaction remains the main driver of the RN vote (24%), more than adherence to the observation made by the party on the state of the country (15%).
The RN vote is more in rejection of other parties (for 61% of voters) than in support of the party (39%). A stable trend since 2017, after a strong increase in membership compared to 1997 (13%).
Among these voters, they are 92% to find justice too lax (85% of all French people questioned), 86% to think that France is a country of Christian culture (against 82%) or even 92% to affirm that the country is in decline (compared to 77%). They are also 86% to believe that democracy is the only acceptable form of government (compared to 89% overall) and 74% to consider it normal that homosexual couples can marry (compared to 78%). 69% support reinstating the death penalty, a figure that drops to 50% among all respondents
Sign of a tendency to de-demonize the image of the party, 59% of those questioned describe the RN as a racist party, a figure that has fallen sharply since 2017 (68%). 55% think it is dangerous for democracy, up from 62% 6 years ago.
Conversely, 50% say he has a vision for the future of France, compared to 40% in 2017. And 47% believe him capable of governing France, compared to 39% 6 years ago.
In the political field, La France insoumise worries more than the RN (28 against 21% of those questioned) and the RN is considered more close to people’s concerns (30% against 18%) than the formation of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The survey also highlights the limits of Marine Le Pen, unsuccessful three-time presidential candidate: only 23% give him presidential stature.
In total, 41% of those questioned want Ms Le Pen to win in 2027, but only 37% predict her success.
His election would be seen as a leap into the unknown for 73% of those questioned. 72% anticipate riots in the suburbs and 69% mass demonstrations.
Among the possible alternatives to Ms. Le Pen, the current party president Jordan Bardella seems the best placed, but remains a minority in opinion: 30% of those questioned would be ready to vote for him in the next presidential election, far ahead of the deputy Sebastien Chenu (12%).
Survey carried out on the internet from June 12 to 15 among 1,314 people who have already voted RN, extracted from a sample of 3,008 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method, with a margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 points.
06/18/2023 10:46:41 – Paris (AFP) – © 2023 AFP