It is not yet clear how effective the Ukrainian counterattack will be. Hardly any details are known. The day after the start of the offensive, President Zelenskyy spoke of intensified fighting in the Kherson region. Britain at least confirms that artillery fire is increasing along the southern front.
According to military experts, the Russian occupiers around the southern Ukrainian city of Cherson are suffering from personnel and supply problems despite significant reinforcements. This emerges from the daily intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defense on the Ukraine war. Whether the Russians can withstand the recently launched Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region depends crucially on whether a reorganization of the invasion forces proves successful, the Defense Ministry said in a statement in London.
“Since early August, Russia has made significant efforts to reinforce its forces on the west bank of the Dnipro (Dnieper) River around Kherson,” the ministry said on Twitter. The units in the south were probably supplemented by components from the east. This suggests a fundamental reorganization of the command structures. Most units around Kherson, however, remain undermanned and depend on fragile supply lines via ferry and pontoon bridges. Since the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine at the end of February, the British government has regularly released intelligence information about its progress. Moscow accuses London of a targeted disinformation campaign.
According to information from Kyiv, “heavy fighting” has broken out in the Russian-occupied Cherson region. There were “strong explosions all day and all night,” said the office of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “Almost the entire area” of the Cherson region is affected. The Ukrainian army launched a counteroffensive on Monday to recapture the region.
The Ukrainian armed forces had launched “offensives in different directions,” according to a statement from Kyiv. The British Ministry of Defense said in a security statement that the “extent of the Ukrainian advance” could not be confirmed. However, the Ukrainian army has “increased artillery fire on front sections throughout southern Ukraine” in order to interrupt Russian supply lines with “long-range precision strikes”.
The Cherson region with its capital of the same name on the banks of the Dnipro River borders on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. As the first major city in Ukraine, Cherson was captured by the Russian army in early March, shortly after the start of the Russian invasion. The region is central to the country’s agriculture and also strategically important due to its proximity to Crimea. In the Russian-occupied parts of Cherson and the neighboring Zaporizhia region, the Kremlin is pursuing a policy of Russification with a view to possible annexation. Moscow has introduced the ruble as its currency there and is encouraging residents to obtain Russian passports.
German military expert Carlo Masala classifies Ukraine’s alleged attack on Russian troops in Cherson as preparation for a counteroffensive. “We have a very, very unclear situation. I would not speak of a major counter-offensive yet,” said Masala in an interview with radio station Bayern 2.
“We hardly get any information from the city or around the city that can really be verified neutrally,” said the expert. It is clear that yesterday Ukrainian artillery attacked Russian positions and that a Russian line of defense fell. “What is unclear, however, is whether this push is really aimed at the city of Cherson and to what extent Ukraine is now able, let me put it this way, to advance into this city with units,” said Masala.