Ukraine is not giving up on its demand for more weapons. After battle tanks and aircraft, Deputy Foreign Minister Melnyk vehemently promoted German submarines. He’s right: they would be of great military use. But there will probably not be a delivery.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is annoyed. As soon as he agrees to the delivery of battle tanks to Ukraine, Kyiv demands fighter jets and submarines and the weapons debate starts all over again. Above all, the Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk is promoting submarines. At the weekend he wrote in a tweet: “I know that I’m getting a new shitstorm for this, but I have another creative idea.” He means the German submarine HDW class 212A from ThyssenKrupp. “Why not send one of them to Ukraine?” asks Melnyk. “Then we’ll kick the Russian fleet out of the Black Sea!”
Germany has six submarines of this type. One of them would be enough to keep the Russian Black Sea Fleet in check, Melnyk claims in another tweet. In fact, the German Bundeswehr describes the 212A as the world’s most advanced conventional submarine – a “quiet fighter in the depths,” as the troops’ website puts it. They are quiet thanks to a combination of diesel generator, fuel cell, battery system and electric motor.
It is true that the submarine would have great military utility for Ukraine. Not least because submarines of this class are relatively small and can therefore also be maneuvered in shallow water. They can also fight targets both above and below water, but are also used for reconnaissance. In addition, the Russian fleet has been unsettled since the loss of the flagship “Mokswa” in April last year. Their sinking was a painful blow to the Russian army. Since then, the navy has been more defensive and therefore more vulnerable to attack.
However, according to military expert Gustav Gressel from the Berlin think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, it is not as easy as Melnyk describes the delivery of submarines. For one, it is not logistically possible to deliver a Type 212A submarine, since Turkey does not allow any warring party to sail new ships through the Bosphorus. The Bosphorus is the strait between Europe and Asia that connects the Black Sea to the Sea of ??Marmara. Turkey has full sovereignty over transit rights for international shipping. “Before the war broke out, Ukraine received two minesweepers from Great Britain, but they cannot be delivered,” says Gressel.
Melnyk is apparently also aware of this. When asked by a Twitter user how the submarines are supposed to get through the Bosphorus, he replies: “By land. No problemo.” According to military expert Gressel, that’s nonsense. Submarines of this size could also be transported dry, i.e. on their own dock ships. But they would also have to go through the Bosphorus. On the other hand, Gressel rules out the overland route: A 1,800-ton submarine, roughly the same weight as a 212A, cannot even be transported from Germany to the Ukraine.
The FDP politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann also rules out the delivery of submarines to Ukraine. “We have submarines that are urgently needed elsewhere,” she told Die Welt. In fact, Germany already has very few submarines for its normal operations, Gressel explains Strack-Zimmermann’s statement. Also, there are no longer any old used boats.
Despite the refusals, Melnyk does not seem to be dissuaded from his claim. The ex-ambassador is known for his direct way of soliciting support for Ukraine from Western allies. In his new position as Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Melnyk follows and comments on events in Germany very closely and makes demands on German politicians. He always offends with this, which is why he recently made it clear again that he had never asked Germany for German troops and that Ukraine would never do so in the future, despite demands for weapons.
Nevertheless, this time Melnyk’s request for submarines could come to nothing. Because in addition to the logistical problems, submarines cost a lot of money, says Gressel. The expert thinks it makes more sense to put the money into more Leopard main battle tanks and ammunition. That makes a bigger difference for Ukraine. However, small minesweeping boats could also be delivered overland. Drones and sea reconnaissance equipment are also useful. These would be of great benefit to the Ukraine and would not require such a great logistical and cost-intensive effort. “Submarines are currently unrealistic,” says Gressel, and even Melnyk should know that.
