Munich Security Index: Survey of Ukrainians: No ceasefire without Crimea return

In a representative survey, Ukrainians express their desire for an end to the fighting. However, Russia would have to leave all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. That’s how long the fight should go on – even if Russia uses nuclear weapons.

An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians are ready for a ceasefire with Russia. The prerequisite for this is that the Kremlin troops leave all occupied parts of the country – including the Crimean peninsula. This is a result of the Munich Security Index, which was published in the run-up to the Munich Security Conference. The representative survey of 1000 citizens took place in November 2022.

80 percent of respondents oppose a ceasefire if Russia were to evacuate all occupied Ukrainian territories except Crimea. Only eleven percent of those questioned would welcome a cessation of hostilities in this case as well. If Russia were to evacuate the peninsula as well, the picture would be completely reversed. Only 2 percent of those surveyed would be against silent weapons even then, 93 percent would be in favor of it in this case.

Despite adverse weather conditions and increasing Russian attacks in Donbass, Ukrainians remain fearless. When asked whether the Ukrainian defenders should continue their resistance even if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons – over the Black Sea, on the battlefield, or on a city – the overwhelming majority answer yes. In the three scenarios mentioned, between 89 and 91 percent of those surveyed want their fight for freedom to continue.

Interesting, albeit not surprising, are the results when asked which countries supported Ukraine and how well and how quickly. While Great Britain (first place), the USA (second place) and Canada (third place) in particular achieve very good values ??with more than 70 percent each, Germany with 47 percent ends up in the middle of the field among supporters. The EU as an institution has a significantly higher level of approval at 61 percent. NATO, on the other hand, only gets 32 percent.

On the side of the states whose commitment is viewed rather critically by those surveyed, China is right at the front: -37 percent approval or rejection. This is followed by India (-27 percent) and the countries of the “Global South” (-15 percent). But South Africa (-13 percent) and Brazil (-7 percent) do not fare particularly well in the favor of Ukrainians either.

The 59th Munich Security Conference will take place from February 17th to 19th in the Bavarian capital Munich.

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