Military expert Carlo Masala expects disputes within the European Union over the distribution of scarce gas supplies. Masala said in the stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation” that “distribution battles will increase the less gas there will be”. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is already benefiting from the continent’s dependency: “This strategy of using gas as a weapon is already working,” said the politics professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.
Statements by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that his country wanted to overthrow the government in Kyiv were seen by Masala as a political message to the West. Masala said: “The signal is: This will take a long time. And you, who support Ukraine, you will have to pay much more. Think carefully if you are ready for this with a view to the coming autumn and winter. ” The government’s partners in Kyiv should be persuaded to persuade Ukraine to negotiate and accept the loss of parts of its territory as irrevocable. Lavrov wanted to make it clear that Russia was ready to further escalate the conflict.
Militarily, the Russian side currently has no way of taking all of Ukraine. “Certainly Ukraine is better off than it was six or eight weeks ago,” he said. “Because it is capable of destroying targets important to the Russian army in the operation in Ukraine.” Here they benefit from the recently delivered weapons from the USA. But Masala hesitated to speak of a turning point in the war. He does not yet see that the Ukrainians could recapture areas on a large scale.
dr Carlo Masala is Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich.