If you’re like me, you watch the NFL every week in amazement. This year in particular, the performances from some of the quarterbacks have been insane.
Two specifically – Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes – have been off the wall absurd.
That’s your reaction if you’re just a casual fan of football. If you’re an avid daily fantasy football player, fading these studs and watching other people win big money because of them puts a sick feeling in your stomach.
Needless to say, few really saw these guys (and others) coming – at least not like this.
That’s the beauty of the daily fantasy sleeper, however. Others don’t think of using a certain player, you do and suddenly their teams are toast and you’re a millionaire.
If you want to try your hand at nailing some NFL DFS sleepers and winning big, take a gander at some of my favorite week four daily fantasy football sleepers.
Should you disagree, perhaps you can at least tap into some live NFL props bets during the week and bet for/against these players hitting certain milestones.
Note: I’ll be using DraftKings salaries for this column, but feel free to apply the analysis to all DFS sites.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills ($5.1k)
Nobody expected Josh Allen to have much fantasy value this early into his Bills career, but after dropping a whopping 27 fantasy points on a stout Vikings defense in week three, DFS gamers need to take notice.
He won’t come by surprise in week four, but he remains dirt cheap at DraftKings and will face a Packers defense that has ranked just 24th against quarterbacks through three weeks.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns ($5.3k)
The Baker Mayfield era officially began last Thursday night, when the former Oklahoma product helped erase a 14-0 hole and get the Browns their first win in almost two calendar years.
It remains to be seen if Mayfield’s impact stretches to the fantasy world, but he was a prolific gamer in college and is not without weapons in Cleveland.
Facing a porous Raiders defense in week four (21st versus quarterbacks), he has a shot to return elite value.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($5.4k)
A common theme for big GPP winners in daily fantasy football is a cheap quarterback going nuts and leading the top winner to glory.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Ryan have both helped people win big and I think you can go cheap at the fantasy passer spot yet again in week four.
If you don’t want to roll out a rookie quarterback, just give Andy Dalton a look. He’s got a stacked Bengals offense and is averaging a solid 21.7 fantasy points on the year. That, and he’ll face a Falcons defense that ranks just 29th against the quarterback position so far this season.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers ($4.1k)
Normally I’m trying to get more reliable running back options, but DraftKings is heavy on PPR scoring, which creates a need for the very best wide receivers.
Fortunately,there is a lot of value at running back and it starts with Aaron Jones in week four. Jones returned from a two-game suspension last week and even in a limited role managed to pile on 47 total yards.
Jones is easily Green Bay’s best running back and he needs to get the ball in his hands more moving forward. Against a Bills defense that ranks 28th against fantasy backs, he profiles as an elite NFL DFS sleeper.
Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions ($4.4k)
Johnson is another cheap running back I love for week four, seeing as he’s an elite talent and showed last week (101 rushing yards) that he deserves more touches.
Easily the best runner in Detroit, Johnson should be handed a bigger role moving forward and this week specifically is very appealing against a Dallas defense that has been a middle of the road unit against the run.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($4.6k)
Carson is probably the third guy in line when it comes to my week four running back sleepers, but he still holds value after topping 100 rushing yards a week ago.
Seattle isn’t very good, and they have offensive line questions, but they’re still facing a bad Cardinals team that is ranking dead last at stopping running backs. Carson is a very solid sleeper given his role and matchup.
John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($3.3k)
A.J. Green is banged up, so there’s a mild chance he could be out or at least somewhat limited this week. Cue the breakout game for the speedy Ross, who only needs one big play to pay off.
Ross has been quiet to get going in 2018, but he faces a Falcons secondary that ranks just 22nd against wide receivers at the moment.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Buffalo Bills ($3.6k)
If I have interest in Josh Allen this week, it might make sense to pair him with one of his receiving options. Buffalo is not loaded with elite pass-catchers, but Benjamin is known for his size and ball skills in the red-zone.
Green Bay has not been great (25th) against opposing wide receivers this year, so if Allen shows up to play there’s a good chance a dirt-cheap Benjamin could thrive in this spot.
Antonio Callaway, WR, Cleveland Browns ($4.3k)
The story is similar with the speedy Callaway, who could benefit greatly from Mayfield sliding in under center.
The rookie displayed explosiveness against the Saints two weeks ago and his role should only grow with deep threat Josh Gordon traded to New England a week ago.
Jarvis Landry is the guy everyone will gravitate to in DFS circles, but Callaway offers way too much value to ignore right now.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals ($3.8k)
I always like to at least consider a value play at tight end, as it’s such a volatile position after the top options. I’m down for rolling the dice with Eifert, who is always a threat to score and has seen his role increase each week.
Eifert can return value immediately if he finds his way into the end-zone, while a date with the Falcons defense shouldn’t deter you from using him at this price.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns ($3.2k)
I also am a fan of Njoku, who is super athletic and in theory should be an elite weapon inside the 20. He really hasn’t popped off yet in 2018, but quarterback play may have had something to do with his struggles.
Now that Mayfield is taking over, Njoku has upside to chase after and is just too cheap for how talented he is. The Raiders have actually done a solid job against tight ends so far this year, but I wouldn’t read too much into that just yet.
Chicago Bears Defense ($2.6k)
Lastly, I really like the value I’m getting with the Bears, who have been a flat-out elite defense since trading for pass rusher, Khalil Mack.
The reality is Chicago was a very good defensive team even before that move, but he puts them over the top. In week four the Bears get the Buccaneers, who many may be worried about due to their hot start.
However, Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a turnover machine, and this is a bad matchup for Tampa Bay. Considering the price discount, the Bears are one of my favorite team defenses in NFL DFS this week.
That does it for my look at some of the top week four daily fantasy football sleepers at DraftKings. Some of these guys will hit and others may miss, but this is a pretty good example of just how much value there is to be had in any given week.
Find the right sleepers and pick the right studs and you just might be on your way to winning a million bucks.
