Golden October is over and gray November takes its place. He initially has showers in his luggage before things get friendlier at the weekend. Even if it doesn’t look like it yet: An icy winter is imminent, reveals ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander.
There is still little sign of winter – but there are already initial forecasts. How do they look?
All in all, the experimental long-term forecasts continue to point more towards an average to even cold start to winter. In particular, the calculations based on the European weather model currently have plenty of cold and frost in the program for December.
What do the calculations show specifically?
That in the last third of November it’s supposed to get a lot colder. Even snow down to the lowlands would therefore be conceivable – although the precipitation impulses are still rather reserved overall.
But the frost should hold back less?
If that’s actually the case, December would get off to a pretty icy start. Even in the lowlands, double-digit minus degrees are buzzing through the forecasts at night. During the day there is permafrost.
What kind of weather would go with it?
A high over northern Europe, for example. This is preceded by an onset of cold air with snow, followed by cold air masses from the north-east to the east. This would then wrap up one of the coldest beginnings of winter in recent decades. Of course, this is anything but desirable, especially in times of gas and energy problems.
But there must be other opinions, right?
There are – but they are not really hopeful at the moment either. The calculations of the American weather service NOAA pursue a slightly too warm approach in December and January. But even that would be – if the forecasts come true – peppered with wintry temperatures at times.
How true are such calculations?
They are of an experimental nature and therefore not comparable with the classic weather forecasts. It is always important to keep this in mind. But in the energy industry, for example, they definitely have a right to exist. However, they are of little or no use for concrete leisure planning – for example, if it snows at Christmas.
What does the classic weather forecast say about the next few days?
That the low-pressure influence initially predominates. On Friday with two quite intense lows over the North Sea (“Nele”) and over the Alps (“Ottilie”) and a hurricane over the Atlantic (“Martin”).
With what consequences for us?
On Friday in the south and southeast with lots of clouds and partly heavy rain. Spread from the Alps to the Bavarian Forest with 10 to 30 liters per square meter within 12 hours. In the evening, the rain will shift towards Saxony. In addition, it is cooler with 7 to 13 degrees. As a result, the snowfall limit in the Alps drops to around 1200 meters.
And on the weekend?
We’re expecting the weather to calm down. On Saturday first with the last showers in the Alps. Otherwise it will be friendlier and more often dry. The whole thing at 6 to 13 degrees. After a frosty start at times, Sunday will be more changeable and windy in the west, while the rest of the country will be nicer throughout the day. The temperatures change little, at 8 to 13 degrees.
What weather can we expect next week?
It will initially be milder on the front of the Atlantic lows and unstable, especially in the north. To the south it is sunnier with highs between 9 and 17 degrees. However, it is still unclear whether there will be a high for our weather in the middle of the week or whether the lows will become more intrusive again.