Whether it’s attacks on ammunition depots or attacks in Crimea: According to military expert Masala, the Ukrainians have recently been striking where they want. For Moscow, that is unpredictable. Masala also comments on the future of Russian President Putin.
Military expert Carlo Masala does not expect the war to end quickly. “The war won’t be over in six months,” he says in the Stern podcast “Ukraine – the situation.” Russia shows “no sign of giving in”. In addition, both parties did not have the military capabilities to deal a serious blow to the other side that would end the war or significantly increase the willingness to negotiate peace.
But the politics professor sees a “new strategy” among the Ukrainians. They would have “escalation dominance” to a limited extent. Whether it’s attacks on ammunition depots or attacks in Crimea – the Ukrainians have recently struck wherever they wanted. This is unpredictable for the Russians. “The Ukrainians want to unleash chaos among the Russian troops,” Masala said.
In the next few weeks, the military expert expects strong effects from weather and seasonal changes. “The terrain will hardly be usable for either side from October.” When it rains and gets muddy, it is difficult to advance with motorized formations or tracked vehicles beyond paved roads. From October, therefore, the actions of both sides would decrease sharply. That won’t change until November or December at the earliest, when it freezes. That’s another reason why it’s clear: “The war will drag on into next year.”
Masala does not expect a regime change in Moscow any time soon. President Valdimir Putin is “firmly in the saddle” and has his entire entourage under control. “If he doesn’t die of natural causes, I don’t think there’s much to suggest that he won’t still be President of the Russian Federation in six months.”
According to Masala, the problem is not just Putin, even if he is the most visible expression. Rather, the problem is the regime. “If Putin were to fall victim to an attack, he would be replaced by someone. And it’s quite possible that the person who comes to power, so to speak, is far more radical than Putin.”