When a volcano erupts, it can be devastating, but it’s usually a local event. However, even more drastic outbreaks are not unlikely. A research team warns that the danger of such an eruption has so far been criminally neglected – with possibly dramatic consequences.
A strong volcanic eruption could plunge the world into a crisis of similar financial proportions as the corona pandemic. A research group from the Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge and the University of Birmingham warns of this. In a paper published by the researchers in the journal Nature, they urgently urge people to take the danger seriously and invest more money in observing volcanoes and preparing for emergencies. The world is “regrettably unprepared” for a massive volcanic eruption and the likely consequences for global supply chains, climate and food, it said.
According to the scientists, the probability of an eruption of magnitude 7 or greater in 100 years is one sixth. The analysis of sulfur concentrations in ice cores showed that such eruptions statistically occur every 625 years. In the past, eruptions of this magnitude have triggered abrupt climate changes and the collapse of entire civilizations, warned risk expert Lara Mani from the CSER, according to a statement. She compares the climatic consequences of a massive volcanic eruption with the impact of an asteroid one kilometer in diameter on Earth.
Although the combined risk of an asteroid or comet colliding with Earth is only one-hundredth that of a massive volcanic eruption, far more money is spent on observing asteroids than on studying volcanoes, the researchers say. “That urgently needs to change. We massively underestimate the risk posed to our societies by volcanoes,” said Mani.
According to the researchers, the outbreak on the South Sea island of Tonga in January of this year should serve as a wake-up call. Had it lasted longer, emitted more ash and gas, or taken place in a region with more critical infrastructure like the Mediterranean, the consequences would have been devastating, say the scientists.
The last magnitude 7 eruption occurred in Indonesia in 1815 and had dramatic climatic consequences that were also felt in Europe, leading to famine, violent riots and epidemics. The year 1816, which followed this eruption of the Tambora volcano, is also known as the “year without a summer”. “We now live in a world with eight times the population and forty times the trade than back then. Our complex networks could make us even more sensitive to the shocks of a large eruption,” said co-author Mike Cassidy and a University of Birmingham volcanologist.
The experts hope to remedy this by better monitoring volcanic activity and researching methods to mitigate eruptions and their consequences. For example, they are calling for a satellite dedicated solely to monitoring volcanic activity. The researchers warn that there could still be dozens of dangerous volcanoes that humanity doesn’t know about, especially in regions like Southeast Asia that have so far been neglected by science. Less than a third of volcanic eruptions since 1950 have had seismometers nearby to record ground vibrations, and again only a third of the data collected has been entered into a global database.
They also call for more research into geoengineering methods, for example to counteract aerosols emitted by volcanoes or to influence magma chambers under active volcanoes. The risk of a massive outbreak that would devastate global society is significant, Mani said, adding the current lack of investment is “simply irresponsible”.