Some states may see an increase in Hispanic participation, while others like Texas could see a decline.
The historic participation of Latinos in 2018’s midterm elections should be replicated in 2019, with approximately 11.6 million Hispanics voting for congressional and state elections. A Latino group estimated Thursday.
Three of the 11 battleground states — Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado — will see an increase in Hispanic participation, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund.
Arizona will experience a 9.6 percent increase of Latino voters. In Colorado, it should be 8.9 per cent, while in Nevada, it should be 5.8 per cent, according to NALEO analysis.
Two, New Mexico and Texas, could see drops.
Arturo Vargas (CEO of the group) stated that “In 2022 Latino voters will once more be a decisive component of the national electorate with one out of ten Latinos being voters.”
He said that the national non-Hispanic vote will decrease by 3.8 per cent.
The turnout factor
Because of an increase in Latinos eligible to vote, the Hispanic vote share in 2018 is expected to be lower than 2018.
Rosalind Gold, NALEO’s chief public officer, stated that Texas saw an increase in Hispanic voters in 2018. However, without significant Latino outreach and other factors the state might not reach 2018 levels and turnout could fall to 6.4 percent.
Vargas stated that New Mexico could experience a 9.8 per cent drop in its population, but that it should still have about a third of its Latino electorate.
The estimates of turnout are based only on objective factors. They don’t account for the pandemic, investment by candidates in Latino voters or changes in voting laws.
Vargas stated, “We want to be proven wrong, and we see these figures as a floor.”
The 2018 midterm elections saw an increase of 71.4 percent in Latino votes compared to 2014, when 6.8 million Hispanics voted.
In 2020, 32 million U.S. Latinos could vote. Every year, thousands of Latino Americans turn 18 and become eligible to vote. Only half of eligible Hispanics vote.
Vargas stated that “despite this growth, there is still much to be done in many areas of the country to help Latinos achieve their full political potential.”
The party of the president has historically performed poorly in the midterms. President Joe Biden is a Democrat.
Republicans have hoped to see Hispanic voter supports similar to that of Donald Trump’s in 2020. He performed well with Latino voters, particularly in Texas and Florida.