The world economy on the ground? Corona-lock downs as the biggest economy killer in the post-war period? Many interpret the deep trough that is evident in the growth curve of this first half of the year of the pandemic, just as deep, hard-to-stop case, entire national economies, the collapse of the world trade.
Joachim Müller-Jung
editor in the features section, responsible for the area of “nature and science”.
F. A. Z. Twitter
at the same time, some environmentalists rubbed on the other side of the hands: The power plants were throttled, the traffic reduced, which was also atmospherically visible: Seventeen percent less carbon dioxide emissions on average in the world until the beginning of April – which became apparent on satellite images for weeks in advance, had shown a “Nature”-study recently, even mathematically. And all of this, as a protector of the climate, hoping should get the world’s climate – and emission-technically the way in the climate policy future.
For the whole pandemic the year 2020, 3 to 13 percent fewer emissions have been calculated, if at least a part of the pandemic would be restrictions up to the end of the year to maintain. The range is large. In all cases, however, and doubted not, Economists should also be of the of the Corona-crisis-induced emission dent in the final bill visible. It could have deceived all of you.
As in the so-called Keeling curve, the scientists of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography with the data of their carbon dioxide measurements on the Mouna Loa in Hawaii, practically in real time to create the characters on “Everything”. 416,76 ppm is because, in the meantime, as the average value for the past seven days, which is at least about 2 ppm more than the 414,8 ppm, which were measured as the maximum value in the past year. And how well to resolve the curve of the first half of the year – a significant Dent is not visible.
China exceeds-Corona-air-pollution
The Keeling curve shows, if you will, the course of the crucial metabolic value of the planet, preceding the fever increase: Increases the carbon dioxide content in the air, which is measured on the Mouna Loa, for decades, scientific and highly reliable, is also accelerating global climate change. Conversely, to Decrease the middle values of the Keeling curve, indicates the declining emissions. However, it must be smooth, in order to get a clear picture about the human contribution to carbon dioxide increase, the curve for this purpose. You have to take out the seasonal effects, for example, and also large-scale and long-lasting climate anomalies, or natural events, such as the climate anomaly, El Niño, sometimes, or large volcanic eruptions, which can release a lot of carbon dioxide and aerosols for weeks.
Ralph Keeling, whose ancestor had established in front of sixty-two years, the Station in Hawaii once, figured without the lock downs with a “regular” increase in carbon dioxide emissions of 2.8 ppm in the first few months. Three-quarters of which were realized, in spite of the especially in some industrialized countries, significant restrictions. To ensure that the emission will remain to be quarry actually is just a short straw fire, also speaks of the recent development in China. In the first epicenter of the epidemic, where the pandemic had been taken early on to carbon dioxide emission reductions of up to 25 percent, and the nitrogen oxide amounts as well as the fine dust loads in March, more than 35 percent, the Ovens long ago on the high.
Already the end of may, China the on-the-Corona had reached air pollution is back – and now even clearly exceeded, as the independent monitoring centre “Crea” reported. At the end of this year, the pandemic and the buckling will be seen in the climatic curve, so the Mouna-Loa-researchers gave to understand the “Guardian”, goes to zero: the emissions would have to fall throughout the year by 20 to 30 percent. Because the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere behaves in the curves like the trash on a huge mountain of trash: He continues to grow. The poop falls for a time, a little less, changes the to the for all the world to the visible garbage in excess of anything at all. Actually would have to, in order to create the Paris climate targets of a maximum warming well below two degrees, by 2020 globally, between 4 and 7 percent annually emits less carbon dioxide every year.