The heads of diplomacy of the G7 countries meet from Sunday in the Japanese tourist town of Karuizawa (center) for discussions which promise to be dominated by the growing pressure of China on Taiwan and the conflict in Ukraine.
The diplomatic agenda in recent days has been dominated by East Asia in particular, with North Korea launching on Thursday what it claimed was a “new type” of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at solid fuel, after having multiplied its weapons tests in recent months.
A few days earlier, China had carried out military maneuvers around Taiwan, simulating attacks and a blockade of the island which it considers to be part of its territory.
The G7 has regularly warned Beijing against any attempt to forcibly change the status quo regarding Taiwan, and some of its members have sounded the alarm in recent days.
“A military escalation in the Taiwan Strait would be a disaster scenario for the whole world,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Friday in Beijing.
But the wordings of the joint statement from the group of major industrialized countries will be closely scrutinized after recent remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron, who on his return from his visit to China said that Europe should not be caught up in “crises that would not be ours”, irritating some of his allies.
The president’s entourage, however, tried to defuse these comments by assuring that the French position had not changed, and many observers expect the G7 to reiterate its positions warning China against any attempt change the status quo regarding Taiwan.
For Paul Nadeau, professor of political science at the Japanese campus of Temple University, Mr. Macron’s statements betray a reality: “Each member (of the Group) wishes to retain freedom of maneuver in the way in which he manages his relations with the China”, politically and commercially, he believes.
Consensus will thus no doubt be easier to obtain on the subject of Ukraine, an opportunity for the Japanese host of the summit to underline his certainty that the Russian invasion only accentuates the need to redouble our vigilance in Asia.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose government at the end of 2022 approved a major revision of its defense doctrine in the face of the rise of Chinese power, has thus repeatedly warned that “Asia could be the Ukraine of tomorrow”.
From the beginning of the conflict, Japan joined the Western powers of the G7 in imposing sanctions on Moscow, also sending defensive equipment and welcoming Ukrainian refugees.
But “the challenge, beyond looking for new entities and sectors to sanction, is to ensure that the sanctions are not circumvented and that we manage to cut off the resources” of Russia, estimated a source French diplomacy.
The summit may therefore not lead to radically new measures, but its participants should endeavor to support efforts in the field of criminal prosecution of war crimes and underline their concerns about Russia’s threats in terms of nuclear weapons.
The conflict in Ukraine and the rise of Sino-American tensions have also highlighted the issue of economic security and the need to diversify supply chains, in the field of energy as well as in that of semi- drivers.
Japan recently announced, after the United States and the Netherlands, measures to control exports of equipment related to electronic chips, a decision clearly aimed at China, which has protested to the WTO.
The discussions of the heads of diplomacy of the G7 should also address other international crises, from the takeover of power in Afghanistan by the Taliban to the latest attacks by the military junta in Burma, through space, cybersecurity and disinformation.
The ministerial meeting, which should be held under heightened surveillance after a jet of explosive device targeted Fumio Kishida on Saturday without touching him during an electoral event, should finally prepare the ground for the summit of the heads of state of the G7 , scheduled for May in Hiroshima.
16/04/2023 06:32:15 – Karuizawa (Japanese) (AFP) © 2023 AFP