Time is running out, ideas are running out and there is “neither Plan B nor Plan C.” This Thursday and Friday, the heads of State and Government of the 27 meet in Brussels for the last summit of the year and one of the most loaded with symbolism in recent times. Leaders must decide whether to give the go-ahead for Ukraine and Moldova’s accession talks to begin, after the European Commission said both bidders are virtually ready. And they have to decide how much ‘fresh’ money to contribute to the community Budget, since the battery of crises since 2020 has triggered community needs, ambition and expenses. And the big problem is that Hungary blocks, vetoes, both. “It’s not like other times. Orban often plays this game in which he threatens, warns, warns, but we end up finding a balance. Not anymore. He has vetoed immigration conclusions twice in meetings at the highest level and now he says it completely clarity: Ukraine’s entry goes against the national interests of its country,” summarizes a senior community source. And when the blow is so strong, the usual tactics are no longer valid.
The issue is completely stagnant. Two weeks ago, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, traveled to Budapest to try to understand the situation, and came away knowing that there was a wall and the clash was inevitable. He therefore urged all leaders to use their influence, their closeness, pressure, whatever is necessary. Orban had dinner with Emmanuel Macron a few days ago, he has received calls from Pedro Sánchez, Kaja Kallas and others, but he is not moving. Not even after meeting Volodimir Zelenski in person this weekend in Buenos Aires, at Milei’s inauguration, in which, not by chance, they coincided. The ambassadors of the 27 met for 12 hours this Sunday and the prospects are not at all promising.
The issue is doubly or triply complicated because Hungary, which this week is left without its great Polish ally (since Donald Tusk returns to Brussels and perhaps with him the double shield to not activate the ‘nuclear weapon’ of Article 7, which requires unanimity , to Budapest evaporate), not only vetoes the country’s accession, or rather, the beginning of negotiations that can last years and that will in any case need its approval later. He has said as much in interviews these days, insisting that “Ukraine is the most corrupt country in the world,” in letters to Michel and his colleagues. In private and at all meetings of ministers, sherpas or ambassadors in Brussels. In addition, Orban also blocks the review of the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework, since it contemplates a fund of up to 50 billion in financial assistance for Ukraine for the next four years.
The discussion itself is already a nightmare without even touching on the Ukrainian issue. The Commission has requested an additional €66 billion for the costs of the new policies, due to the increase in the cost of the pooled debt of the Next Generation Funds, for the migration crisis, etc. And for Ukraine, of course.
The traditional fight between orthodox supporters of belt-tightening and not including additional contributions, and between those who say that the only way to paint something in the world is to make an investment that lives up to expectations, is eclipsed by the ‘no’ of Orban. The parties continue negotiating as if the veto did not exist, because it is the only thing they can do. But they assume that there will be no substantive agreement this Monday night, when the ambassadors also try to resolve the 12th package of sanctions against Moscow, which for a change makes Budapest uncomfortable, always attentive to Russian sensitivities. Not even on Tuesday in the General Affairs Council, which is what the European Council is preparing. “It will be at the level of leaders or it will not be,” diplomatic sources summarize.
The key is, however, in what happens on Wednesday, the day before. That day it is expected that the European Commission will be able to unlock a part of the funds that Hungary has frozen. There are many billions that are waiting, both from Next Generation and from Cohesion, since the Rule of Law Mechanism has been applied for the first time in history to Hungary and Poland. The country, say community sources, has made many advances in the last year, approving legislation, applying reforms, offering more guarantees. But the timing is anything but casual. There is a veto, there are very strong economic interests, and the only way to try to soften their position is to open the refrigerator. It is perhaps not enough, but it seems inevitable to begin with.
The question is how far it can go. Senior European sources say that “Orban is not a suicidal driver. He is someone intelligent, skillful, who always has a plan and something to pull out.” They don’t believe he’s going to blow himself up for the pleasure of it. He will tense and perhaps not give in, but he is not crazy,” they point out. Other actors involved are more skeptical. Orban has gone from talking about the rights of the Magyar minority in Ukraine to “national interests.”
It is a change of level, of rhetoric. “How do you convince someone who says something like that?” negotiators ask themselves these days. Seeing how he has multiplied his interventions, that he is sending emissaries to Washington to align himself with the ultra sector of the Republican Party so that they also stop aid to Ukraine, and that the level of insults, contempt and attacks is at a record even by his standards, It seems difficult to be optimistic. He may simply delay the decisions for a few weeks (there is no alternative to accession but there is, perhaps, money), he may just make noise or Moldova does receive the green light, but he may also be willing to blow up not only the Summit , but the way in which all decisions are made from now on. And for that you do need a Plan B or a Plan C.