Three weeks after the presidential election, Nigerians are called to vote on Saturday, March 18, to elect their governors. And all eyes are on Lagos, the country’s true economic lung thanks to its gigantic port and its flourishing businesses… and once an unshakeable stronghold of the contested new president, Bola Tinubu. As the former governor of Lagos (1999-2007), he enjoys immense wealth and influence which has enabled him to have the necessary networks to reach the head of the most populous country in Africa, even if the opposition denounces massive fraud during the February 25 election.
On Saturday, Nigeria elects the governors of 28 of the 36 states that make up this federal republic (the others having already been the subject of by-elections), as well as the representatives of the local assemblies. And for the first time in two decades, the bustling megacity of 20 million people could escape the influence of Mr. Tinubu, its historical “godfather”, in favor of an opposition governor. An immense cultural power, the megalopolis is the cradle of Afrobeats, a musical genre that sets the planet on fire with its stars like Burna Boy or Tems, and of Nollywood, the second largest film industry in the world.
Bola Tinubu has had “hands on the appointment of all the governors [of Lagos] since 2007”, underlines Yusuf Omotayo in the editorial of the political magazine The Republic. The current governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, candidate for re-election for a second term on Saturday, is often described as a “puppet” of Mr. Tinubu in the local press. But according to Mr. Omotayo, this stranglehold by Tinubu “could come to an end” on Saturday, as “Lagos prepares for a historic election”.
Admittedly, Bola Tinubu, 70, won the presidential election by accumulating the largest number of votes at the national level. But at home in Lagos, it was underdog candidate Peter Obi, 61 and a youth favorite, who came out on top, winning 10,000 more votes. The slight lead represents for supporters of Mr. Obi and his Labor Party (LP) a symbolic victory that has raised hopes of winning Lagos on March 18.
Monster traffic jams
“It’s a strong warning,” says Olanipekun, a 28-year-old trader, who thinks “the majority are hungry for better governance and now want to change the mediocre political system imposed for years.” This resident does not see the “transformation” of Lagos that Messrs. Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu boast of having caused, but rather the monster traffic jams in a city that is sorely lacking in public transport and housing. So without hesitation, this supporter of Peter Obi will vote on Saturday. Because if, according to him, Tinubu has not lost his grip on Lagos, there is a “chance” on Saturday to “turn the tide” and vote for another politician.
This man is Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, LP candidate for governor. A 40-year-old architect, from a prominent local family, who vows to “end the grabbing of Lagos’ resources by one man and his family”, calling on young people “to come out in droves to vote”, says he during an interview with AFP.
During his campaign, Mr. Rhodes-Vivour recalled that he had participated in a historic youth movement against police violence, called “EndSARS”. In October 2020, tens of thousands of Nigerians took to the streets to denounce the brutality of the security forces and demand better governance. But the peaceful demonstrations had been bloodily repressed by the authorities, in particular at the Lekki tollbooth in Lagos, ending the movement and traumatizing the youth, who had promised themselves to punish the leaders at the ballot box.
For analysts, it is EndSARS and its repression which largely explains the immense popularity of Mr. Obi, seen as younger and more honest and who could favor the candidate of the LP on Saturday. But to overthrow the Tinubu system in Lagos, it would still be necessary for the youth to go to the polls, when many say they are “disgusted” by the presidential electoral process, which has largely lacked transparency. Young people interviewed by AFP said they would not vote. ” What’s the point ? They cheated for the presidential election, they will cheat again on Saturday, ”launches, resigned, Damola, a 23-year-old student.
