The armed clashes following an Israeli military incursion in Nablus that killed eight Palestinian militiamen and three civilians, the reaction from Gaza with projectiles against Israel and the consequent Israeli air response against the Islamist group Hamas raise the possibility of an explosion of violence that breaks into a thousand pieces the picture of the situation that, despite being very tense and lethal, remains under control. The circle of mutual retaliation, the instability in an Israel centered and agitated around the divisive government proposal for judicial reform, a Frustrated Palestinian National Authority (occupation, colonies, etc.), worn out (President Abu Mazen in his decline has not called elections since 2006) and without control in Jenin and Nablus before veteran militias (Hamas, Jihad, Al Fatah…) and new ones ( The Lions’ Den), armed clashes with Palestinian casualties in Israeli raids and attacks by Palestinian “lone wolves”, including minors, were also inspired by Also due to the incitement in the networks, they make up a very pessimistic panorama. American and Egyptian mediators are leading a time trial against the goal they see in a month: Ramadan, a usual date of tension around the religious element (Mosque Esplanade or Temple Mount ) in Jerusalem. The US says it understands Israel’s “security needs” but admits that the high death toll in Nablus could “harm efforts to restore calm.” His spokesman, Ned Price, asked the parties to refrain from “unilateral actions that could escalate tensions.” Following the recent Israeli announcement, in response to the three attacks in Jerusalem, to regularize nine illegal enclaves and approve the construction of thousands of houses in colonies in the West Bank, the US wrested from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who depends on some ultranationalist government partners, the commitment not to take similar measures in the coming months “to reduce tension.” The Palestinians, who took part in the negotiation, assure that Israel promised to reduce its incursions into the territory occupied in the 1967 war. Hence their monumental anger over the action in Nablus that the Israeli Army justifies by assuring that the objective was to “stop terrorists who carried out attacks and planned others.” On Wednesday, Hamas told Egypt that it does not want and cannot prevent Islamic Jihad from taking revenge for the deaths of several of its leaders. Its six projectiles against Israel caused no deaths as they were neutralized by the “Iron Dome”. There were also no deaths in the Israeli attack against a base and a Hamas arms factory in Gaza where hours later the UN special coordinator, Tor Wennesland, met with fundamentalist leaders to try to stop the deterioration before it is too late. The 33 projectiles in the last month against the Israeli south double the figure for all of 2022 if we except the three days of confrontation in August between Jihad and Israel.

A new escalation is possible despite the fact that Israel, Abu Mazen and Hamas do not want it. From Gaza, under the control of the Islamist group and with reconstruction projects, 17,000 Palestinians leave for Israel every day to work, which alleviates the serious situation of the coastal enclave. A new war would close its doors. All in all, Hamas warned that the Nablus incursion would have an answer both for the dead and for its philosophy of connecting Gaza, the West Bank and Jerusalem. “Our people in all stripes will continue the great revolution, despite the massacres. The resistance demonstrates the equation that a bomb will be answered with a bomb,” warns its spokesman Hazem Qassem. Hamas, however, prefers that the response not come from Gaza but rather, for example, in Jerusalem, as was the case with the latest attacks that it encourages by all means. So far in 2023, 61 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli shots (mostly militiamen in clashes during incursions, perpetrators of attacks or in riots) and 11 Israelis (10 civilians and one policeman) in Palestinian armed attacks, recalling figures from the first two months of 2001 in the Second Intifada. One more reason why analysts and leaders talk about the possibility of a new Intifada.

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