For the epidemiologist Klaus Stöhr, it is actually only a political question as to when the corona pandemic will end. However, he sees a problem in the fact that many vulnerable people are still not sufficiently vaccinated – and that applies above all to other infectious diseases, he says in an interview with ntv.de.
ntv.de: Why did the Corona autumn wave collapse so quickly?
Klaus Stöhr: Just like with the previous corona waves, there is saturation in the population, the number of susceptible people is rapidly decreasing. This, in turn, reduces the number of cases and the wave collapses because there simply aren’t enough susceptible people left. After a certain time, the population mixes up again and it starts all over again. As the pandemic progresses, waves will become lower and lower, and eventually there will be a normal seasonal increase in winter and low-level circulation in summer.
Will it be difficult again this winter?
Of course, the number of corona cases will increase again this winter – just like that of the other respiratory diseases every year. This year – unlike next year – the importance of Corona will be somewhat higher despite the good immunity situation and the relatively low burden of disease. This is because there are still some people who have not yet been infected or have not been vaccinated, or have been infected only once. As a result, there will not only be a seasonal increase, but also a disproportionate increase.
What is the role of influenza and RSV?
There will be an autumn wave, but not just because of Corona – it may play a minor role. There are currently more influenza viruses circulating, so-called rhinoviruses and metapneumoviruses, which contribute more than corona viruses to the fact that many people come to hospitals and intensive care units.
Is China a threat? After all, there are a lot of people there without a corona vaccination or infection.
Globally, it is only an economic problem that China is pursuing a strict zero-Covid strategy. But for the Chinese population, it is of course the case that the corona wave still has to roll through there. A pandemic won’t stop until everyone is immune – through vaccination and infection, or just the infection. China is yet to do that, but it has no health effects on us apart from the economic ones.
Some fear that a new variant could arise there that causes problems for us.
Exactly the opposite. New variants arise through selection or immune escape. New variants arise where many people are already immune. And that’s not the case in China, it’s the case in the rest of the world. The people who keep saying that new variants arise where there are many infections have no idea how selective variants come about.
Whether corona, influenza or RSV, what measures are necessary this winter?
The measures that applied prior to the pandemic will continue to be critical afterwards. So whether you have hygiene concepts in hospitals, in stationary and mobile nursing. That people who test positive for an infectious disease – this can be corona, but also influenza, RSV or tuberculosis – are accommodated in single rooms, for example, that the nursing staff wear a mask and wash their hands so as not to spread the infection.
The most important measure that can reduce the burden of disease is vaccination of vulnerable groups. This is crucial. Everything else is just a cosmetic way to change something. The virus circulates in a population, control measures do not change that. Vaccinated, unvaccinated, recovered and non-recovered, symptomatic and asymptomatic people are potential virus carriers. A quarantine and also the selective wearing of a mask on the train for the three hours a week that you sit in it does not change anything if you do not wear a mask the rest of the time in the restaurant, in the bar, in the cinema or anywhere else.
So again: Hygiene concepts in hospitals and nursing stations et cetera and the vaccination of the vulnerable are important.
Doesn’t it still make sense to use masks to relieve hospitals, administration or companies from being overloaded by too many infected people at once?
This is a catch-up effect. Of course, you could actually keep your distance by wearing a mask, disinfecting, and reducing the shortage of staff a little. But again: This is not about Corona, but about respiratory diseases. Influenza is currently the most common. You can also reduce them a bit with masks that catch the tips a bit. The main source and place of infection, however, is the family, and people are most often infected at home.
Next comes work, no question about that. It’s not a matter of closing your eyes and getting through it, but getting through this catch-up effect as best as possible. You can now see that exactly what we said is happening: if you don’t regularly get infected with the pathogen from time to time, the infection that you postpone will only get more severe.
In summary, is the best way out of the pandemic infections after vaccinations?
I would put it this way: the route that is unavoidable is through infection. And what you can do proactively to minimize the consequences is vaccination. So the order is then to only get vaccinated when you are vulnerable and then the unavoidable infection comes. The data from studies is relatively clear: This is the combination that provides the longest and greatest protection. As I said, the way for all vulnerable people is to get vaccinated.
When will the corona pandemic finally end?
This is a political decision. Why? The European environment has similar conditions and the same virus, but the political decisions on how to deal with the pandemic there or no longer deal with it are diametrically opposed to what you see in Germany. So how to assess the risk, how to best lead society to the end of the pandemic.
As an expert in this field, I would say that if the disease burden and the immunity level of corona are similar to that of other respiratory diseases, and if the potential for change of the virus is not very high, then endemic has been reached. But since there are still some older people who have not yet been vaccinated, and a number of people have not yet been infected once or twice, it will be a bit more intense this winter.
Klaus Wedekind spoke to Klaus Stöhr