A year ago, a tuit made the regional chess board jump around the air around the Western Sahara conflict.
In a short message in the social network, Donald Trump – which was already in the countdown of the presidency of him-recognized the sovereignty of Morocco on Western Sahara in exchange for the restoration of diplomatic relations with Israel.
The decision, contrary to the resolutions of the United Nations, which considers the territory as “pending decolonization”, re-established regional geopolitics.
“Today I signed a proclamation by recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The proposal for a serious, credible and realistic autonomy of Morocco is the only basis for a just and lasting solution for a lasting peace and prosperity,” Trump wrote on Twitter that day.
In a second message he revealed: “Another historical landmark today! Our two great friends Israel and the Kingdom of Morocco have agreed full diplomatic relations – a mass milestone for peace in the Middle East!”
In the time that has elapsed since then, the old rivalry between Morocco and Algeria – His counterpower in the Maghreb and defender of the independence aspirations of the Saharawl – has been lit again, in one of the worst clashes of the last decades.
After several disagreements, at the end of summer, Algeria broke diplomatic relations with the Alauí Kingdom and at the beginning of November ceased to supply gas to the peninsula through the gas pipeline that passes through neighboring territory.
The tension rises to the heat of the military conflict that has been reactivated in the Western Sahara itself, between the Polisario Front and Morocco, in a confrontational dynamics that started in November 2020, almost a month before Trump’s Tit.
But not by shocking Trump’s decision can be seen as a rupturist of US foreign policy.
“It is the continuity of a long-run policy, there is a line of obvious continuity,” Analyzes Domingo Garí, professor of contemporary history at the University of La Laguna.
Garí has just published the book “United States in the Western Sahara” (Cataract), in which he studied declassified documents of the State Secretariat, of the presidential archives of the Gerrald Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, as well as
CIA materials to trace the trajectory of the US involvement in the conflict.
With a year of perspective and with the studio of Gari in the hands, it gives the impression that it could be guess that the US was going to reach this point.
“Actually, Trump’s decision is a continuation of Reagan’s policies, but taking a step forward that implied the effective recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The issue is that this was latent from the first support that the
Government of Ford, in 1974, gave Morocco, with the international policy strategy directed by Kissinger. In a way, that was implicit, “considers the professor, in a telephone interview with the world.
The unilateral movement of the Republican President was ‘a priori’ called to be seconded by other countries.
And that is what Morocco expected, who looked carefully at the reaction of France, Spain and other US Allied countries.
One year has elapsed and none of the main actors of the conflict have followed the direction marked by Trump.
Only Colombia was declared last October in favor of Moroccan sovereignty at the former colony.
Under the new Presidency of Joe Biden as of January 2021, the US has not reversed in the Trumpist Decree but neither has it continued to deepen on it, since for now it has not opened the expected consulate within the territory and, for example,,
Nor did it allow military maneuvers African Lion to develop in the area in dispute.
The reason that it does not revoke to Trump may point out that the consequence would be a weakening of Abraham’s agreements, driven by Trump to normalize relations between Israel and three Arab countries (United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan), which is then
He added Morocco.
“Trump -which makes that decision advised by the son-in-law, who maintains close relationships with Israel – links both problems, this reluns again the conflict of Morocco and the Sahara with the Israeli-Palestinian question, which is latent throughout the period. Morocco
He always played a role of proximity in the North American foreign policy in the Near East. This policy was to favor Israel’s position in the area and on the change has received permanent support from the US, sometimes more venerate and other times directly, depending on how it evolved
The conflict in the Middle East, “says Professor Canario.
“Thus, the Western Sahara conflict is linked through the North American geopolitics for the Middle East, it is not that the Sahara conflict has a direct link but the link is American geopolitics and its support for Israeli positions to win allies
that reinforces Israel’s position in a hostility environment. They began to harvest friendships from the Camp David agreements, with Egypt, and it has been a subsequent drip sum that has ended with the original isolation situation in the
Zone, “he says, summing the way until Abraham’s agreements.
The impulse that Trump gave him to the relations between Washington and Rabat roles with the massive support that Reagan consecrated the Monarch Hasan II.
“The one of Reagan, no doubt, was the US government that has favored the positions of Morocco. His support was final, was the one who made a greater amount of investment and the one who favored the acquisition of new armament for Morocco, deployed advisers
military on the ground, he built – with other allies – the retaining walls, deployed a lot of military intelligence on the ground … from there there was a new situation in the war. Until the massive entry of the US supporting Morocco, the
Polisario Front had a fairly extensive control of the territory, around 80% of the territory. With this massive support of Reagan to Morocco, the tables were already invested and from then on Morocco that controls 80-85% of the territory and the Saharawi
They are behind the walls, “sums up.
It is still early to analyze where the rudder of Biden will be directed in the Western Sahara conflict and what will be the scope of its policies on the ground.
On the horizon there is the creation of a context to convince the parties to return to the negotiations within the United Nations.
But what is certain is that the US will have a key role.
“There’s not going to be a solution if it’s not from the US’s hand. There is no other actor who can put an end to the conflict and look for an honorable output for all,” says Garí.
