Six months before the elections, the campaign promises to be very tense in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with an opposition which fulminates against a regime determined to remain in power, against a backdrop of conflict in the east and social crisis.
The presidential election, in a single round, is scheduled for December 20 in the huge country of some 100 million inhabitants, coupled with the election of national and provincial deputies as well as municipal councillors. Félix Tshisekedi, president since January 2019, is a candidate for a second five-year term. Having experienced it in previous elections, postponed for two years, some Congolese still doubt the organization of the vote in due time and expect what they call a “slip”.
But the authorities say the elections will take place “within the constitutional deadlines” and, above all, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) has so far respected its timetable. She “enrolled” (registered) voters and issued them with cards. This allowed him to redo the electoral register, which was groomed by an “external audit” and served as the basis for the “distribution of seats” law, promptly voted by Parliament and promulgated on June 15.
Technically, “the Ceni has demonstrated that it can meet deadlines. A shift is less and less conceivable,” notes Trésor Kibangula, political analyst at the Ebuteli research institute. When it comes to trust and transparency, that’s another story.
“Power has all the levers”
At the end of 2022, Ebuteli was worried about a “badly embarked” electoral process, carrying the risk of “violent demonstrations”. At issue: the highly controversial compositions of the CENI itself and of the Constitutional Court, the last electoral lock. “In fact, at the legal level, the power has all the levers,” notes another observer of Congolese politics on condition of anonymity.
For the past few weeks, the formations of four opponents, declared presidential candidates, have been organizing demonstrations to demand an overhaul of these bodies which, according to them, will lead to fraud and chaos.
These opponents – Martin Fayulu, Moïse Katumbi, Matata Ponyo and Delly Sesanga – also consider that the electoral register is “fanciful”, in particular because “enlistment” could not take place in territories prey to armed violence and that the “audit” was completed in a record time of five days.
The police had violently repressed one of their marches on May 20, leading to numerous protests from the powerful Catholic Church, civil society and the international community, with a statement from around fifteen embassies calling for “competitive, peaceful, inclusive and transparent” elections.
“The next few months are going to be explosive”
The camp of former President Joseph Kabila (2001-2019), meanwhile, has so far asked its activists to boycott the electoral process. According to Trésor Kibangula, there remains “a chance to regain the confidence of the public”, it is to organize “a new independent and transparent audit of the electoral register”. This “could help lower political tensions” without having to postpone the vote, the analyst said. “The opposition continues to demand guarantees of transparency, but at the same time it must start preparing” for the elections, he said.
Political science professor Alphonse Maindo is among those who believe that “good elections” on December 20 are impossible. Rather, he advocates a “transition” that would make it possible to prepare well, including by “mobilizing the necessary resources”.
“The next few months are going to be explosive, with demonstrations, arrests, trials…”, fears the academic, who had been in 2022 among the signatories of a declaration calling on Denis Mukwege to run for president. The famous doctor, Nobel Peace Prize 2018 for his action in favor of raped women, has not yet said anything about his intentions.
Observers are also expecting a high abstention, because of the lack of confidence in the electoral process and the political class in general, but also because the concern of many Congolese, taken by the throat by unemployment and the inflation, is to feed their families. The DRC has a very rich subsoil, but two thirds of its inhabitants live below the poverty line.