Three months after the disputed general elections of February 25, Bola Ahmed Tinubu officially succeeds Muhammadu Buhari as President of Nigeria on Monday, May 29. After a difficult election period, marked by a severe shortage of cash and fuel in the country, many are counting on this transfer of power to give a new impetus to Nigeria.
Africa’s most populous country is sinking into an endless economic crisis and faces widespread insecurity that is severely hampering its growth. “We are waiting to see how the new administration will take up the fundamental economic issues and in particular if there will be an attempt to reduce expenditure,” notes Idayat Hassan, the director of the Center for Development and Democracy (CDD) of ‘Abuja. “Insecurity is of course another pressing topic. We cannot envisage having a successful economy in a difficult security context,” she adds.
Nigeria faces endemic insecurity, which affects its entire territory. In the northeast, jihadists from the Islamic State in West Africa (Iswap) still control large swathes of territory, while groups affiliated with Boko Haram remain active around Lake Chad. Since the death of Abubakar Shekau, the historic leader of the terrorist organization, in May 2021, thousands of civilians and former combatants have surrendered to the authorities, asking the thorny question of their reintegration into society.
Resumption of mass abductions
The situation is also very worrying in northwestern Nigeria, where armed groups nicknamed “bandits” are spreading terror among the population. After a relative lull during the election period, mass kidnappings resumed at a steady pace. Schools, churches, are regularly the target of these men, considered as terrorists by the Nigerian government. Their relentless attacks are crippling the local economy and threatening food security, as farmers are increasingly afraid to go to their fields.
In the center of the country, it is the tensions between herders and farmers, for the sharing of resources, which regularly degenerate into a spiral of fratricidal violence. In the past two weeks, nearly 200 people have been killed and hundreds more have been displaced in Plateau state, after several villages were destroyed.
In south-eastern Nigeria, economic difficulties and the population’s feeling of abandonment have contributed to the rise of separatist groups, which regularly attack public buildings and police stations in the region. On Tuesday May 16, four Nigerian employees of the American consulate were killed in the attack on their convoy in Anambra State. Regularly pointed out by the authorities, the separatist movement of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) condemned this attack. But its members are still demanding the release of their leader, Nnamdi Kanu, imprisoned in Abuja since he was forcibly returned to Nigeria in July 2021.
bitterness of youth
“Nigerians expect the president to speak of unity and inclusion of all ethnic groups and religions,” said Idaya Hassan. But there is also a real need to include younger people and women in the new administration. The new head of state, 71, is indeed far from unanimous in a country where more than half of the population is under 18. After a bloody crackdown on a protest movement against police brutality and poor governance in October 2020, much of Nigeria’s youth believed that change could come from the ballot box. The defeat of opponent Peter Obi, third man in the last presidential election, marred by irregularities and violence, has only increased the bitterness of the young people, who are more and more numerous in “japa” – that is to say, to flee their country, ravaged by the economic crisis.
In April, inflation exceeded 22% in Nigeria. “We’re really going to have to tackle this problem head-on, not to mention the issue of debt and the fiscal deficit,” said Tunde Ajileye, analyst at SBM Intelligence, in Lagos. Eight years after coming to power, Muhammadu Buhari leaves behind a heavy slate, with a national debt that could exceed 150 billion dollars (140 billion euros) this year.
“From what we know of Tinubu’s style of governance, there is little chance that he will be sober,” said Tunde Ajileye. On the contrary, we can expect an even larger government and the creation of new state agencies. On the other hand, it is expected that the new president will reconsider the protectionist policies dear to his predecessor: the latter notably imposed a series of restrictions on imports, in the hope of favoring local production. But the unilateral closure of Nigeria’s borders between 2019 and 2020, due to the Covid-19 epidemic, caused the price of rice and other basic foodstuffs to jump.
Shortage of new tickets
The future relationship between the government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will also be closely scrutinized. Its governor – a close friend of now ex-president Muhammadu Buhari – is in the hot seat after issuing directives that plunged the country into chaos earlier this year. The central bank had decided to replace all of the country’s banknotes within six weeks. The population had massively brought back its cash in the bank, but without obtaining the new notes, which were far too rare. The ensuing shortage would have affected 76% of Nigerian businesses according to SBM intelligence. Immediately after the elections, the disputed measure was postponed indefinitely and the banks put the old banknotes back on the market. On the other hand, many also hope that the new administration will put some order in an extremely complex foreign exchange system, composed of multiple regimes.
Finally, the new government will have to replenish the coffers of the State, whose foreign exchange reserves have collapsed with the stagnation of crude oil exports. “Nigeria has not been able to meet the quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries for quite some time and investment is needed in this sector,” Tunde Ajileye said. The opening of the Dangote Group’s mega-refinery on the edge of Lagos, inaugurated on Monday, May 22, could facilitate the lifting of subsidies on gasoline imports which cost Nigeria 400 billion naira (800 million euros) per month.
Overall, analysts believe Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be “more open for business” than his predecessor was. The new head of state is known to be a fine strategist and a wise kingmaker. “He made deals with a lot of people that he has to reward now, so he has to keep the economy running, says Tunde Ajileye. Greater economic activity can be expected, although corruption is likely to increase further. Bola Tinubu now has sixty days to appoint his new government.
