After the clashes that injured around 30 soldiers from KFOR (the NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo) for the first time in several years, the organization announced on May 30 that the staff of this mission will be reinforced in the country. The soldiers had interposed the day before between Kosovar Serb demonstrators and the country’s police, as violence escalated in the area.
The north of the country has been plagued by serious public order disturbances since Pristina tried to ban old Serbian car license plates, which are widely used in this area near the border with Serbia. All the Serbian civil servants in these few localities had left the state services, starting with the police, but also the mayors. Elections were therefore held on April 23 to replace the resigning elected officials, but they were boycotted by the Serbian Kosovars, who are a very large majority in these localities. Albanian mayors were therefore elected, with participation rates around 3.5%.
The new mayors took office surrounded by numerous police officers. On Monday, clashes erupted between the police and Kosovar Serb demonstrators demanding the departure of elected officials and that of the Kosovar special police, deployed as reinforcements. “As things stand, nothing can work: mayors elected with 3.5% participation in elections, even if they are legal, cannot exercise their mandate”, analyzes Loïc Tregoures, doctor of political science and Balkan specialist. For Pristina, the elections are legal: their results have even been recognized by the international community.
“The challenge for Kosovo and its Prime Minister Albin Kurti is to show that it is a sovereign state on its territory, therefore legitimate everywhere, including in the north”, analyzes the specialist, while the country does not is recognized by only about 100 UN members, but neither by Serbia nor by the EU. But the Serbian population in the north of the country refuses the authority of Kosovo and still feels very close to neighboring Serbia. “There is no systematic state oppression of Serb populations in the country. On the other hand, that does not exclude a desire among some Albanians to see the Serbs leave. In any case, this is what the latter can perceive, ”adds Loïc Tregoures.
Pristina and Belgrade held discussions in March under the aegis of the European Union which had resulted in a protocol for the normalization of their relations, which have not existed since 2008, the date of the emancipation of Kosovo, a former Serbian region. Following this protocol could have been a calming factor, but Serbian President Aleksandar Vu?i? refused to sign it (while announcing that he had reached an agreement with Albin Kurti), giving it no existence. Since then, the situation has been blocked and threatens to deteriorate.
The main sticking point is the creation of an Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM) in the north of the country, planned in a bilateral agreement in 2013, but never implemented. “Today on the issue of ASM, the ball is in Kurti’s court: he must offer something even if his version and that of Belgrade are incompatible”, explains Loïc Tregoures. Either way, he notes the volatility of the situation. “You can predict these protests, but not their outcome,” he slips. If someone had fired into the crowd, the whole thing could have quickly degenerated.
On the Serbian side, Kosovo is treated as an internal political issue. “For Aleksandar Vu?i?, it is a smokescreen, a fight that justifies his action as head of state both vis-à-vis the population, but also to Westerners, who think he is the the only one capable of reaching an agreement,” explains the specialist. The Americans and their allies are mainly driven by the desire to keep Belgrade away from Moscow, while the rapprochements, precisely, are multiplying. For Loïc Tregoures, “it is possible that they more strongly condemn the behavior of Pristina and show more lenient towards Belgrade. He notes, however, that Kosovo is on a positive democratic slope, and one of the rare countries in the region to be.
Some actors had suggested an exchange of two regions to settle the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo: these Serb localities in northern Kosovo would go to Belgrade, and a valley in southern Serbia with an Albanian majority would go to Pristina. For Loïc Tregoures, this market will never be passed, because it is not equal. “For that to happen, Belgrade would already have to recognize the existence of Kosovo. So it wouldn’t be a one-for-one (a region for a region), but a one-for-two (a region for state recognition AND a region) trade,” he said.
This Wednesday, if the tensions on the spot seem to settle, the Serbian army is still on alert at the border, as it is regularly as soon as clashes break out in Kosovo. Pristina does not seem to back down on the issue of the election of mayors, and no new discussions have been initiated with Belgrade.
