The military offensive that Azerbaijan launched this Tuesday in the separatist region of Karabakh has once again unleashed alarms in this disputed enclave populated by Armenians in Azerbaijani territory. The attack comes after months of escalating tensions and mutual accusations in the region. But it is a conflict that comes from afar. We analyze your keys:
They dispute the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to Armenians, a landlocked mountainous area in the Caucasus region. The dispute predates the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1998, Armenians living in the territory called for the transfer of the then autonomous province of Nagorno-Karabakh from Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia. Following the end of the USSR, tensions escalated into open war, with Armenia taking control of Karabakh and seven adjacent districts. More than a million people, mostly ethnic Azerbaijanis, were forced to leave their homes and the region is currently populated by about 120,000 ethnic Armenians. The war caused the death of more than 30,000 people. During the war, in 1991, a referendum was held in Karabakh, in which 99% of the population voted in favor of proclaiming the separatist territory as an independent republic. It now has its own government not recognized by any country, including Armenia, despite having its military support. After the conflict, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) created the Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States, in an attempt to find a solution to the conflict. However, a permanent commitment has not yet been achieved.
From 1994 to 2020, there were continuous skirmishes, including intense four-day fighting in 2016, which left hundreds of people dead on both sides of this porous border. In 2020, an Azerbaijan with an economy strengthened by the sale of gas and the support of Turkish drones, began a new offensive against the enclave to have the territory it claims its property under control. Azerbaijani forces seized hundreds of villages in Armenian-controlled regions, including Shusha, near Stepanakert, the capital of the unrecognized Karabakh region. The ceasefire came three months later, after a conflict that caused the death of 7,000 people, including a hundred civilians, according to data from the Crisis Group research center.
The cessation of hostilities was achieved with the mediation of Russia. Part of the agreement includes the deployment of a contingent of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to Karabakh to maintain peace and monitor the implementation of the pact by both sides. Moscow has diplomatic and economic ties with both sides and plays an important role in maintaining stability. Armenian media point out that Azerbaijan seeks to take advantage of the war in Ukraine and Moscow’s lack of ability to maintain its weight in the region, to intervene again in the territory. In fact, after the 2020 war, the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been considerably reduced and the fronts are much closer. Russian troops have not had the capacity to intervene in all the skirmishes that have occurred in recent months.
Although both governments have made repeated statements in recent months saying that they recognize each other’s territorial integrity, tensions in Karabakh have not diminished. The ceasefire has not prevented spontaneous clashes, which have escalated in recent weeks. At least 200 soldiers have died since the cessation of hostilities was declared.
However, the main focus of tension centers on Azerbaijan’s blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Karabakh with Armenia. The authorities of Artsakh and Yerevan assure that Azerbaijan has blocked the entry of food, medicine and fuel to a region of 120,000 ethnic Armenian inhabitants for nine months. A day before Baku announced the military offensive, a humanitarian corridor had been allowed to pass through to allow food to enter the area.
