The European Union (EU) may have offered Tunisia a “reinforced partnership” on Sunday with promises of financial aid, but it is not certain that this will be enough to lift the mistrust of international financial rating agencies. Recently, it was the American Fitch which lowered the rating of the Tunisian debt by one notch, from CC to CCC-. Tunisia was already on the list of countries presenting a real risk of not being able to reimburse, according to the American agency. This further deterioration is only a sign of growing mistrust, due to delays in negotiations to obtain a new loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“It is in our common interest to strengthen our relationship and invest in [Tunisia’s] stability and prosperity, which is why we are here,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. , came to Tunis in the company of the Prime Ministers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, and of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte.
After an interview with President Kaïs Saïed, the official announced Brussels’ intention to provide the country with “macro-financial assistance which could reach 900 million euros”. On its website, the Commission clarified that it would be a new European loan which “would follow” the granting by the IMF of a loan under negotiation of two billion dollars.
Brussels “could provide additional aid of 150 million euros to be injected into the Tunisian budget now”, added Ms von der Leyen.
This aid is part of a “five-point package” which the President of the European Commission hopes will be the subject of a bilateral agreement, by the end of June and the next European summit.
Europe, “first trading partner and first investor”, has “supported Tunisia’s journey to democracy since 2011 [and the Revolution that overthrew dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali], a long and difficult road “, underlined the European leader, without mentioning the current political crisis in the country.
President Saïed, who granted himself all powers in the summer of 2021, is accused of “authoritarian drift” and of having regressed rights and freedoms by the opposition and NGOs.
Since early February, around 20 opponents have been imprisoned on charges of “conspiracy against state security”. According to Amnesty International, they are the subject of “a witch hunt”.
Andrea Cellino, an analyst at the Swiss Middle East Institute MEIS in Geneva, interviewed by AFP, lamented the European attitude: “What about reforms and restoring the democratic path? It looks like money for nothing. »
Europe has not hidden its concern for the Maghreb country in recent months, its head of diplomacy Josep Borrell even evoking a “risk of collapse”.
Indeed, Tunisia is strangled financially by a debt of 80% of its GDP, which leads to recurring shortages of foodstuffs, such as flour and rice, purchased by the state. It has been negotiating for months with the IMF but the discussions have stalled over President Saied’s refusal of reforms including the restructuring of the hundred or so heavily indebted public companies and the lifting of certain state subsidies on basic products.
The program proposed by the EU provides for increased investment in Tunisia, particularly in digital technology and renewable energies, as well as an extension to Tunisia of the European student exchange program Erasmus.
One of the important parts of the European “package” concerns the fight against the “cynical business” of illegal immigration, for which the EU will provide “this year to Tunisia 100 million euros for the control of its borders, search and rescue” of migrants, von der Leyen said.
Ms. Meloni, for whom it was the second trip in five days to Tunisia, said she was “satisfied” with the European approach which offers “a real partnership to face the migration crisis and the issue of Tunisian development”.
The Forum for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES), a Tunisian NGO, denounced in a statement on Sunday the European visit as “a bargain” to “give money” to Tunisia in exchange for reinforced surveillance of its borders. .
This European diplomatic ballet did not, in any case, prevent, at the same time, the rating agency Fitch from lowering Tunisia’s rating. This downgrade of the country’s long-term debt rating “reflects uncertainty around Tunisia’s ability to raise sufficient funds to meet its substantial financial needs,” Fitch said in a statement. Tunisia was already one of the issuers presenting real risks of non-reimbursement, according to the institution. “Our main scenario is for a deal between Tunisia and the IMF by the end of the year, but that’s much later than we previously expected and the risks remain high,” Fitch said.
The agency recalls that the government’s budget depends on more than $5 billion in external funds (10% of GDP), which will not be released until there is an agreement with the IMF.
