First concrete sign of recovery in China: activity in factories experienced its strongest monthly expansion in a decade in February, following the end of anti-Covid restrictions, according to official figures published on Wednesday.

Many businesses, restaurants and production sites have been crippled for three years by repeated confinements and travel restrictions in place in the Asian country to fight the pandemic.

The sudden lifting of these restrictions in early December triggered an economic recovery, weighed down, however, by a massive wave of Covid in the weeks that followed and by the Lunar New Year holidays in January.

But manufacturing activity improved significantly in February.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a reflection of the health of the industrial world, stood at 52.6 points last month against 50.1 in January, announced the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS).

A figure above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, and below that indicates a contraction. It had not been so high since 2012.

Analysts polled by the Bloomberg agency also expected an increase, but much less marked (50.6).

After the end in December of the once almost compulsory PCR tests and travel restrictions, China was hit by a wave of Covid which infected a large part of its 1.4 billion inhabitants.

But the fall in the number of sick people last month, coupled with the return of Chinese people to work after the traditional period of economic slowdown around the paid Lunar New Year holidays (January 21-27), has revived activity.

“With the easing of the effect of the holidays (…) and the repercussions of the epidemic, the resumption of production of manufacturing enterprises has accelerated and demand has continued to climb,” said Zhao Qinghe. , SNB statistician.

Factories have traditionally struggled to get some of their workers back after the holidays during this time of year and they need time to adjust to running at full capacity again.

“The strength of the PMI index confirms that the economic recovery is on the right track”, analyzes Zhiwei Zhang, of the firm Pinpoint Asset Management.

“The strong rebound in domestic demand could lead to inflationary pressure” but this should “fade after a few months” and “should not be a concern for the global economy,” he said.

The independent PMI index, published on Wednesday by the IHS Markit firm for the Caixin media group, also confirms this upturn in manufacturing activity.

It stood at 51.6 points in February, compared to 49.2 points the previous month.

According to the study, employment has increased, the pressure on supply chains has eased and delivery times have improved as they have not for eight years.

The Caixin-Markit survey, which polls mainly SMEs, is said to paint a more accurate picture of the general economy, while the official BNS figure focuses on large public companies.

“The high levels of the PMI indices partly reflect the weak basis for comparison compared to the state of the economy at the start of the year and are likely to fall back soon, as the pace of the recovery slows” , however tempers Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics.

“Nevertheless, they highlight how quickly activity has rebounded following the reopening and the wave of infections” and “the latest data suggests that even our 5.5% growth forecast” for 2023 “may prove too much. careful,” he said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its growth forecast for the world’s second largest economy to 5.2% this year.

More clues about China’s economic health are expected to be revealed on Sunday at the opening in Beijing of the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s parliament.

Prime Minister Li Keqiang will present in a speech the last government report of his mandate and will detail the main economic objectives for the year.

01/03/2023 08:50:12 – Beijing (AFP) – © 2023 AFP