Monday, the day of the weekly market in the small town of Haffouz, about forty kilometers from Kairouan, in central Tunisia. As often since the end of the month of Ramadan, at the end of April, Boutheina is in search of “prohibitions”, as this mother of two children likes to call them with a smile: neither alcohol, nor drugs – which one finds in elsewhere in sufficient quantity in town and in the surrounding countryside – but simply basic food products. Flour, semolina, rice, vegetable oil, sugar, coffee, bread, pasta… These foods, officially subsidized and therefore kept at affordable prices for a large majority of the population, are regularly missing.
For months, Tunisia has lived to the rhythm of shortages, which the Kaïs Saïed regime tries to minimize or blame on enemies of circumstance: those who wish harm to the country, those who enrich themselves on the backs of the poor. , those who, finally, have gone from political opponents – some of whom are imprisoned – to “speculators” eager to overthrow power by creating these lacks, according to the presidential speech.
A decree-law intended for the “fight against illegal speculation” was promulgated in March 2022; merchants were thrown in prison for a few reserves of milk, others refused to store potatoes for fear of being boarded in their turn… but nothing helped. “I’ve been queuing for bread for two hours,” said Moncef, retired, in front of the bakery in the heart of the market. We spend our day trying to get groceries. »
In Tunisia, the baguette, whose unit price is 190 millimes (less than 0.06 euro), is the symbol of a compensation system set up in 1974 to prevent price volatility of basic necessities, many imported, keeping prices low. The mere announcement of the increase in cereal prices, in December 1983, had provoked the “bread revolts” of January 1984, forcing President Habib Bourguiba to back down, after having tried to repress the protest in blood.
Showdown with the IMF
This reference, Kaïs Saïed does not stop brandishing it in his interminable showdown with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The $1.9 billion in financial assistance planned since October 2022 was indeed suspended for lack of an agreement on the conditions of the loan, which provided in particular for the phasing out of the subsidy system. Except that in fact, many Tunisians find themselves paying more for these products – when they find them.
“Look how small they are, they are half the weight of a normal baguette for the same price,” Moncef indignantly exits the bakery with a bag containing five small baguettes. For Louai Chebbi, president of the Alert association, which fights against the rentier economy in Tunisia, bakers manage as best they can with the quantities of flour at their disposal, because theoretically, “they are obliged to provide bread all day.” Despite the size of the baguette, which decreases over the morning to be able to sell it to as many people as possible, there will be nothing left around 1 p.m.
“Bread is a red line,” warned Kaïs Saïed at the end of May, following yet another controversy linked to an increasingly visible shortage in the Kairouan region. The government then announced emergency supply measures and, officially, everything has since returned to normal.
“It’s just wind,” retorts Boutheina, the mother, who comes home empty-handed that day, worried about what she might be preparing as a meal for her children. “If at least there was semolina, I could have made bread at home, but it is nowhere to be found. Yamen, who owns a neighborhood grocery store, confirms: “When they come to provide me with only two or three bags, I prefer not to take them. What am I going to do with such a small quantity when I have customers who have been waiting for weeks? he says, distraught. “The problem is with the state. There is not enough money to supply us with durum wheat,” denounces the grocer.
“Tunisians are not fooled”
For Louai Chebbi, “Kaïs Saïed’s speech is completely out of step with reality”. He denounces a structural problem aggravated by the state budget deficit, which has drastically reduced the import of certain products, such as vegetable oil and coffee. At the market, the discussions revolve around these “prohibitions”. The day before, a truck full of bags of semolina bound for southern Tunisia broke down near Haffouz. Videos and photos taken by residents show a crowd of people coming to get supplies directly. The truck was emptied within minutes.
Sheltered from a sun that has become scorching in the middle of the day, Mohamed-Ali, who runs a wholesale company for general food products, is lying behind the counter of his warehouse. He is not overwhelmed with orders and is worried about his future after two of the four wholesale companies in the locality went out of business following serious financial difficulties. Consulting old invoices, he notes: no coffee since January, no rice for two months…
Paradoxically, what now seems to be bothering the young shopkeeper is the forthcoming delivery of a few pallets of semolina, this commodity that has become so rare. “Look at my blue finger,” he said, pointing to the middle finger of his right hand. It got stuck in the door on the last delivery, there were even women fighting for their share. The mentality of the state is to keep people in an in-between: they don’t have enough to eat, but they don’t starve. »
Despite an economic crisis that is likely to worsen in the absence of financing alternatives, Kaïs Saïed would still benefit from a favorable opinion, around 70% according to recent polls. “People don’t necessarily link the current difficulties to the current authority,” Louai Chebbi tries to explain. “We don’t understand much about Kaïs Saïed’s policy, but we are still waiting. What could we do? Another revolution? “, justifies Bassem Issaoui, local head of a consumer defense association, before recovering: “The Tunisians are not fooled either. If nothing gets better soon, it may heat up in winter. »