Has the worst finally passed for an African continent badly shaken by the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic? This is what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) seems to announce in its latest forecasts devoted to sub-Saharan economies and unveiled on Tuesday October 10 during the annual meetings of the institution and the World Bank in Marrakech, Morocco.

Announce, or rather hope, as the pitfalls remain numerous and the risks of relapse high. A rebound in growth is expected to 4% in 2024, after just 3.3% this year. “We can clearly see clearings, rays of sunshine that did not exist six months ago,” describes Luc Eyraud, director of studies at the IMF’s Africa department and lead author of the report. However, conditions remain very difficult. »

The reasons for this cautious optimism are primarily due to a slightly less deleterious external environment. Paradoxically, both Europe and the United States have so far demonstrated relative economic robustness. Global inflation, still stubborn, is starting to subside. On the food side, prices have fallen in recent months; good news south of the Sahara, where food represents on average 40% of consumer spending. Central banks in developed countries should stop raising interest rates further, which could result in the beginnings of easing on financial markets.

At the continental level, some heavyweights are starting to get better. This is the case of South Africa, weighed down for months by a serious energy crisis. After almost standing still in 2023 (0.9%), its GDP should start growing again next year, by 1.8%. More broadly, “growth will improve in around four-fifths of the region’s economies,” predicts the IMF.

A level of debt never reached

However, sub-Saharan Africa is far from being out of the trap into which the series of shocks of the last four years have plunged it. In the spring, the IMF was alarmed by a scarcity of sources of financing for the continent. No real improvement is emerging on this front, even though debt represents almost 58% of GDP, a level not reached in two decades.

Already, half of the region’s low-income economies are on the path to debt distress. Even bankrupt, like Zambia and Ghana, now engaged in delicate restructuring operations. The tightening of financial conditions has led to a surge in interest rates which increases borrowing rates and prevents African issuers from refinancing on the markets. More and more states are struggling to honor their debts and find themselves forced to cut social spending.

At the same time, although inflation may be decelerating, it continues to weigh heavily on households. Fourteen African countries still show double-digit rates, such as Nigeria, the continent’s main economy, where price increases reached 26% in August, or Sierra Leone (51%). Very often, these pressures combine with the depreciation of currencies, which increases the price of imported products and complicates the repayment of external debt.

Added to this complex macroeconomic picture is a political and social situation that is not very reassuring. “The risk of conflict has increased significantly due to growing geopolitical tensions, weak institutions, and a cost-of-living crisis that has left many people behind,” the IMF said in its report. The putsch carried out at the end of July in Niger is thus the eleventh coup d’état perpetrated in the region since 2020.

And the Sahel is not the only area of ??instability. The security situation remains worrying, even frankly degraded, in Sudan, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic and Nigeria. In total, 40% of sub-Saharan African countries are classified as fragile or conflict-affected states. However, violence feeds on economic difficulties while making them worse.

Curse of raw materials

By publishing its own forecasts on October 4, the World Bank expressed alarm at the risk of a “lost decade” for sub-Saharan Africa, marked by stagnation in per capita growth between 2015 and 2025. The IMF warns of him that the recovery will not be the same for everyone in an Africa which operates, more than ever, at two speeds. “We must not look at the area as a homogeneous whole,” insists Luc Eyraud. Some countries are growing at rapid rates, while others are struggling. »

The first group brings together diversified economies such as Ivory Coast, Senegal, Kenya and Rwanda. Their growth, supported by consumption and investment, could reach nearly 6% in 2024. Conversely, in countries exporting basic products such as Nigeria, Angola or South Africa, activity is not expected to grow faster than 3.2%.

This divergence is not new. It widened in 2014-2015, when oil prices collapsed, but has never subsided since, including during periods of rising prices. Trapped by the famous “curse of raw materials”, the economies dependent on their subsoil have not been able to return to their level of growth before the coronavirus crisis. And this disparity risks getting even worse, warns Luc Eyraud: “On average, in diversified countries, GDP per capita will have doubled within twenty-seven years, while this should take eighty-seven years in countries that are net exporters of raw materials. »

To tackle these development gaps, the IMF provides its traditional advice: invest more in human capital, improve natural resource management and promote economic diversification. But as the annual meetings of the two sister Bretton Woods institutions are held in Africa for the first time in half a century, the fund is also calling on major donors to provide the continent with greater support. Foreign aid, which has become less generous over time, should be more regular and better targeted.

“A prosperous 21st century requires a prosperous Africa,” argued IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva during her traditional curtain-raising speech, delivered Thursday in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. “The more we help the region move forward, the more resilient the global economy will become,” the report concludes.