Mitigating climate change and addressing population aging are key objectives for China as it aims for sustainable development. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China has set goals to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The country has seen a reduction in the growth rate of carbon emissions over the years, shifting towards more sustainable development practices. However, due to its large population and increasing household consumption, China remains a significant contributor to global carbon emissions.
Recent attention has been directed towards understanding the drivers of carbon emissions, particularly focusing on household carbon footprints. China’s population is nearing its peak and aging rapidly, with a total fertility rate well below replacement levels. The implementation of the one-child policy in the 1970s led to a significant decline in fertility rates, resulting in an aging population. Subsequent adjustments to the fertility policy, such as the two-child and three-child policies, have aimed to address demographic challenges.
In May 2021, China further relaxed its fertility policy with the introduction of the three-child policy, allowing all couples to have up to three children. Supportive measures, including housing and educational subsidies, have been implemented to alleviate the financial burden of raising children. At the same time, China’s retirement age is among the lowest globally, with plans to gradually extend the statutory retirement age to address population aging.
Studies have explored the effects of population aging on carbon emissions, with varying results. However, the impact of fertility and retirement policies on carbon emissions and household carbon footprints remains largely unexplored. By examining age-based household carbon footprints and population projections, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature.
Analysis of age-based household carbon footprints in China reveals significant variations across provinces and age groups. Younger individuals tend to have higher carbon footprints compared to middle-aged and older groups, driven by differences in income and consumption patterns. Residence and transport are identified as the primary contributors to carbon footprints, with consumption patterns varying across age groups.
The study projects the impacts of different fertility and retirement policies on China’s population and economy. The results suggest that relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age can lead to an increase in household carbon footprints, primarily driven by changes in population size and structure. The synergistic effects of these policies highlight the complex interactions between demographic trends and carbon emissions in China.
Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the relationship between climate actions, demographic policies, and household carbon footprints in China. By understanding these interactions, policymakers can develop more effective strategies to achieve sustainable development goals while addressing demographic challenges and reducing carbon emissions. The findings underscore the importance of considering population dynamics in climate change mitigation efforts and highlight the need for integrated policy approaches to ensure long-term environmental sustainability and social well-being.