According to Friday’s Science Advances, this combination of fire-flood and severe drenchings on a spot that has burned in less than a year could double in the Pacific Northwest, increase by eightfold in California, jump roughly 50% in Colorado, and cause a worse-case climate-change scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions are increasing.
According to the study, 90% of extremefire events are likely to be followed by at most three downpours in the same area within five years due to human-caused global warming.
The study authors stated that the West is becoming dryer overall, making wildfire season more prolonged. However, concentrated rains are increasing in frequency and arriving earlier so that areas can be affected by both extremes.
One disaster is worse than another. “Two disasters in quick succession are worse than one because you’re already reeling after the first one,” Samantha Stevenson, a University of California Santa Barbara climate scientist, said. “But, in the case of extreme rain and wildfire, it’s worse because you lose your vegetation, change soil properties, and make the landscape more favorable to flooding.
Stevenson is aware of the Thomas Fire, which began in late 2017, and was followed by a downpour of half an in (13 millimeters), of rain in five minutes. This caused mudslides at Montecito, killing 23.
Stevenson stated, “Oh yeah it was crazy.” “Like the whole highway was blocked off by a wall made of mud. People’s living rooms were littered with boulders.”
It was even more devastating for Daniel Swain, co-author of the study and a UCLA weather expert who lives in Colorado. his Boulder house was set on fire last week andhe had to flee. Today marks the beginning of flash flood season.
In the Pacific Northwest, flood and fire seasons are getting closer together, especially in the Pacific Northwest. Swain stated that extreme rainfall should be increasing, even though both are likely to get worse.
Swain stated, “That’s another kind of a double whammy. A situation where the candle is burning at both ends.” It’s possible that these fires will still be lit when there is an extreme rain event.
The report examined 11 Western U.S. States, with a focus on four where the increased fires and subsequent downpours were most evident.
The worst-case scenario of global warming that was studied by the study authors, using large-scale climate simulations on hundreds of scales, became less likely as many countries, but not all, have reduced their emissions of heat-trapping gasses.
They stated that they could not use simulations for more likely scenarios, with moderate emission reductions. According to Danielle Touma (National Center for Atmospheric Research climate scientist), the Pacific Northwest would likely see an increase of fire-and flooding by fourfold in the most probable scenarios.
Simulations of fire weather were used, but not fires, and conditions like downpour. LeRoy Westerling from the University of California at Merced, a climate scientist, expressed concern about how accurate global computer simulations can be on such a small scale. He said that the results are still valid.
