“What is Berlin afraid of?” asks the Ukrainian government. The main battle tank “Leopard” could be delivered in a joint action from many European countries. Berlin would have to push them, demands military expert Gressel.
Garry Kasparov, a former world chess champion from Russia, describes the disciplines in which Russian troops have recently excelled as “swimming, riding, running.” Biting mockery on the net for the attacker’s defeat in north-eastern Ukraine. 50 kilometers separated the Ukrainian troops from the Russian border, according to Chief of Staff Valeriy Saluschnyi.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine was able to recapture 6,000 square kilometers of land from the Russian occupiers within less than two weeks. Even if the reality were to stay below this number, the success of the Ukrainians contradicts the narrative that has been advocated by the Kremlin and some German security experts since February: that Russia will not lose its war of aggression against the neighboring country due to its superiority in weapons, troops and stamina could.
The majority of experts, in Germany and internationally, opposed this from the first day of the war. In her view, Ukraine’s chances of not only defending itself against the Russian attack, but also of winning this war in the end, stand and fall with the West’s willingness to provide massive support to Kiev’s troops. Without modern, Western weapons, Ukraine would have no chance of surviving, it was said in the spring.
The spectacular successes of the last few days, after many weeks in which Russia seemed to be working its way slower than desired but nevertheless seemed to be steadily advancing, are not just the worst Russian debacle in this war since Moscow’s troops had to give up their attempt to take the capital Kyiv . They are also fueling the debate as to whether the West should also support Ukraine, which is fighting with the courage of desperation, with Western battle tanks.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far avoided taking a position of his own on this issue. At a press conference on Monday to mark the visit of the Israeli Prime Minister, he repeated the statement that had been coming from the Chancellery for weeks: Germany would not go it alone.
Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said the same thing at a security conference, pointing out that no country had yet delivered Western-style armored personnel carriers or main battle tanks. In addition, according to the minister, the Bundeswehr is “reaching its limits” when it comes to handing over its own material. The ability to defend must not be endangered, Germany must continue to be able to keep its tasks and commitments in the NATO alliance.
But this argument was put into perspective by NATO itself last week. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg publicly made it clear on Friday that he considers a defeat in Ukraine to be more dangerous than NATO countries stocking their weapons depots under plan. The West must stick to the current course – “for Ukraine’s sake and for our own sake”.
Since the weekend, voices in the traffic light coalition that want to support the Ukrainian army more from Germany have been increasing again. From the Liberal Christian Lindner to the Green Ricarda Lang, leading figures in the government insist on examining what could go beyond the deliveries already promised.
Kyiv asked the German government several times a long time ago for an aid delivery of the “Marder” infantry fighting vehicle. Meanwhile, the battle tank “Leopard” is also under discussion. The demands from the ranks of the FDP and Greens are flanked by the statements of well-known defense experts who consider further deliveries to be urgent at this point in time and question the validity of the Chancellor’s argument.
Accordingly, a German solo effort in the delivery of battle tanks would be neither necessary nor given if the federal government were willing to give Spain the green light for a delivery of the “Leopard” 2. Madrid had offered Kyiv the German-made types, but cannot deliver them until Germany agrees. However, nothing came from Berlin, after all it was said that the tanks were in need of repairs, so delivery was not possible.
According to the military expert Gustav Gressel, this is an excuse to cover up the negative attitude of the federal government. “Of the 100 main battle tanks, about 40 are in an acceptable condition. The rest would have to be repaired,” says Gressel ntv.de. Lambrecht’s reference to the combat readiness of the Bundeswehr does not apply in this case either: the delivery would not weaken the German troops, but the Spanish ones. And this weakening would also be marginal, since the “Leopard” has already been retired.
A German delivery of “Marder” armored personnel carriers would also not be a burden for the Bundeswehr. Although the armored personnel carrier, which is considered to be versatile, is still in use in the German army – for 51 years now – the armaments company Rheinmetall began repairing decommissioned vehicles several months ago.
The Ukraine repeatedly asks for the armored personnel carrier, as it is far superior to the previously used Soviet-design types in terms of security. While an old Soviet model usually burns out after a hit and the Panzergrenadiers inside have little chance of surviving, the German tanks are more robust. In June, Rheinmetall offered to deliver the first vehicles, but like the Spaniards, it was thwarted because there was no go from the Chancellery.
On this issue, too, Olaf Scholz refers to an agreement between the supporter countries, none of which have so far delivered any armored personnel carriers or battle tanks developed in the West. National solo efforts should be avoided. However, the transitions are fluid and a “Marder” infantry fighting vehicle lags behind the “Gepard” and the Panzerhaubitze 2000 in terms of its fighting and destructive power – two war machines made in Germany, with which the Ukrainian troops are already fighting. According to the Ukrainian army command, the 20 “Gepard” anti-aircraft tanks made a significant contribution to the recent successes.
But the defenders’ considerable gains in ground are no guarantee that things will continue to go well for Ukraine in the coming months. The Russian attacks have destroyed many Ukrainian ammunition production sites, and the troops have been struggling with bottlenecks since the summer. In an interview with ntv.de, security expert Joachim Weber from the University of Bonn sees Western battle tanks as essential, especially in the current phase of the war. The Ukrainian counter-offensive would be more promising with modern equipment. He sees the fact that nothing has yet been delivered as “Western failure”.
“Everyone in the government knows that more would be possible,” Green Party leader Omid Nouripour criticized Scholz’s attitude on Monday. And the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba lets his disappointment with Germany run wild on Twitter. He sees “not a single reasonable argument” against the delivery of tanks, “only abstract fears and excuses. What is Berlin afraid of that Kyiv is not afraid of?”
According to military expert Gressel, Olaf Scholz fears resistance in his own party. “It is not NATO agreements that are preventing the chancellor, but inner-party sensitivities, as expressed by people like Kevin Kühnert or Ralf Stegner.”
Gressel has very concrete ideas about how effective help for the Ukraine could look like: In addition to the “Marder”, the main battle tank “Leopard” 2 could be delivered for the Ukrainian troops, and in significant numbers, because it is not only found in the German Army, but in a total of 13 European countries, including Norway, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Spain, Denmark and Finland.
Overall, Gressel estimates the number of “Leopard” 2 tanks in Europe at over 2000 – in different conditions – and wishes Scholz to initiate a European initiative. “If each of the 13 countries only gives up a small number of tanks, that would already give you a critical mass,” he argues.
If you look at the list of 13, you have to remove countries like Putin-friendly Hungary, neutral Switzerland and unpredictable Turkey from the group of potential helpers. However, the vast majority of European “Leopard” users are already among the active supporters of Ukraine. Measured by their economic power, most are more helpful than Germany.
A Berlin solo effort could be avoided. At the same time, it would make sense for Scholz to push the initiative, since Germany, as the producer of the tank, would have to approve its gift to each of the countries involved. If such a concerted action were to take place among European states, it could send a signal to the US ally, which has so far been the strongest supporter of the Ukrainian army, that Europe feels it has the same responsibility to defend the European peace order against the Russian aggressor.