Forecasts revised upwards. While the Social Security deficit, forecast for both 2023 and 2024, will widen further, the increase will be even greater by 2027 since it is expected to double, according to the draft bill. financing of Social Security, consulted Tuesday September 26 by Agence France-Presse.
The deficit this year is now estimated at 8.8 billion euros (compared to 8.2 billion planned in the last financing law in April), then at 11.2 billion in 2024 (compared to 9.6 planned in April). The deficit should then reach 15.8 billion euros in 2025 (compared to 13 mentioned so far), then 17.5 billion in 2026 and 17.9 billion in 2027.
After an abysmal deficit of almost 40 billion euros in 2020 due to Covid, Social Security had gradually reduced its losses. But the 2023 accounts are weighed down by a slippage in health spending: the national health insurance spending objective (Ondam) is projected at 247.6 billion euros, compared to 244.8 initially forecast in April.
This gap is explained “mainly” by the salary increases at the hospital, announced in June 2023, and by a larger than expected increase in community care, “in a context of high inflation pushing certain expenses upwards”. such as compensation for sick leave, details the text.
The government also expects that the deficit in the old-age sector will continue to widen as expected, but less quickly than expected immediately after the pension reform, with no explanation at this stage. It is expected to increase from -1.9 billion in 2023 to -13.6 billion in 2027.