shaken The Regime of President Aleksandr Lukashenka in Belarus. Two days without a brutal, indiscriminate violence of the security forces have passed to the protests against his rule so swell that it will be impossible to provide them again with legitimacy. In the camp of the regime, more and more cracks are starting to show. The Statements of the President, wants to have heard of “twenty strike”, and the interior Minister, claimed that the arrested demonstrators were not acting in the arrest, miss, seem to be from another world.
Everyone can see what’s wrong: There are thousands in many large state strike and the prisoners were systematically and brutally mistreated. Because with almost every a new terror behind history is known to damage the Opening of the prison gates, the View of the regime, now more than ever, the number of arbitrary arrests.
All this does not mean that the Regime would have been abandoned. What is the meaning of the restraint and willingness to talk to, which shows the Regime now, is unclear: steps back slowly? Or wants to gain time for a counter-attack? The great Unknown here, the Kremlin is: Will he intervene in Belarus, if necessary even with violence, to prevent the victory of a Revolution in the country, which Russia is culturally closest to? Or understanding in Moscow of how risky such a step would be? The assessments Kremlin-loyal politicians and publicists show for Russian conditions amazing dissonance.
In this Situation, it can be crucial that the EU acts quickly now. You must take the Regime at its word, that it was willing to talk – and you must send people into the field, their political weight is so great that Lukashenka can’t deny you. It would correspond to a request of the Belarusian Opposition. At the same time, the EU do not need to install in Moscow a double message: That it’s about geopolitics, and that a violent Intervention would have a very high price.
