The withdrawal from the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson frees up Russian forces to prepare attacks elsewhere. Moscow is already stepping up its attacks on the Donetsk region. However, experts reckon that the troops will only be able to make modest advances there.
While Ukraine can claim recaptures in the Cherson region, it reports violent attacks by the Russian occupiers in the Donetsk region. According to experts, Moscow is likely to expand the shelling of the eastern Ukrainian region. “It’s pure hell there,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday in one of his video speeches about the attacks.
The Ukrainian General Staff also said heavy fighting would continue in Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia’s Defense Ministry has already reported minor advances in Donetsk. Moscow’s troops have captured the town of Majorsk near the town of Horliwka, said Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry.
According to the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow will step up its attacks on Donetsk in the coming weeks. The Kremlin will therefore fall back on troops that have been released by the withdrawal from Cherson. Ukraine will come under pressure from the attacks, although it will most likely have to deploy its own forces to effectively defend the region.
However, the think tank assumes that Russia will hardly be able to make any advances despite its new offensive. The ISW bases this forecast on the fact that Russian soldiers lack both good training and sufficient equipment, which is why they are often reluctant to go into combat.
In addition, the new troops from Kherson would not be transferred to Donetsk as a coherent unit, but would be divided into smaller groups to support forces in different locations. The troops, who have been fighting in Donetsk for nine months and are demoralized by heavy losses, pose another problem for Russian warfare, experts analyze.
In addition, according to the institute, the composition of the Russian armed forces makes the operation in the illegally annexed area more difficult. Accordingly, not only regular troops are fighting there, but also a coalition of the Wagner mercenary group, mobilized units, militias of the separatist leaders and Chechen soldiers. Recently there had been reports of high losses from friendly fire.
Moscow could achieve individual successes solely through the large number of armed forces. However, the ISW considers major advances to be unlikely, since Moscow has not yet been able to form a coherent unit with its fighters. Therefore, there is a good chance that Ukraine will be able to keep the Kremlin’s troops in check on the existing front lines for the time being.
According to the forecast, Ukraine will also move troops from Kherson to Donetsk. Kyiv could attempt to push the Russians back across the Dnipro River to the opposite east bank. In this way, however, Ukraine is endangering the supplies for its own soldiers.
As a result, the ISW anticipates that Ukrainian soldiers will attempt to consolidate control of the west bank by preventing their wartime opponents from re-crossing the Dnipro. The ISW suspects that Ukraine will not only strengthen the troops in Donetsk in the coming weeks, but also those in Luhansk in order to press ahead with their counter-offensive there.
