Advertising cap on their heads and a banner stuck under their arms, two Ecuadorians unenthusiastically distribute electoral leaflets to morning joggers in the north of the Ecuadorian capital, Sunday morning August 13. “There aren’t many people there,” sighs the young man. People are paralyzed with fear. “Four days earlier, Fernando Villavicencio, one of the presidential candidates was assassinated by three bullets in the head, in the middle of the street. “We had never seen a political crime in Ecuador,” said the woman, who is approaching her fifties, with concern. Like her young neighbor, she’s there “because the job gets paid.” They don’t care which candidate appears on the leaflets. “Voting is useless,” they explain in unison. Politicians care about the people. All “. If the vote were not compulsory, neither of them would vote on Sunday, August 20.

Their words confirm what analysts and polls say: in this country of 18 million people, politics do not convince. More than 50% of voters said they were still undecided in the polls published ten days before the election (Ecuadorian law prohibits their publication afterwards). “The explosion of criminal violence in our country, which has fallen prey to drug cartels, is contributing to the discredit of public action and elected officials, considers one of the joggers present. Assassinations, kidnappings, extortion have become daily occurrences. Why vote, if the state can’t or won’t do anything? The assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, who defended corrupt people and mafias by denouncing their acquaintances, caused a real shock. The question of whether his death will weigh on the result of the general elections (presidential and legislative) anticipated is posed.

Ecuadorians are called to the polls on Sunday, August 20, because the right-wing president, Guillermo Lasso, decided in May to dissolve the Assembly, which threatened to dismiss him. Eight candidates have registered to succeed him. Even before the attack, the campaign for the presidential election eclipsed the stakes of the legislative elections. The president (or the president) and the deputies who win the ballot will only remain in power for eighteen months, that is to say the remaining time of the mandate of the outgoing elected officials.

An FBI team has arrived

In the latest polls, the candidate close to former President Rafael Correa (2007-2017) was the favorite for the presidential election. Luisa Gonzalez indeed collected more than a quarter of the voting intentions. Four candidates – including Mr. Villavicencio – were vying for the obviously coveted second place. The balance of power could change in the second round, from the ultra-liberal right to the new left, all the “small” candidates should ally against the candidate of Rafael Correa.

The former president, who was sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption – on the basis of information revealed by Fernando Villavicencio – lives in Belgium, but he continues to influence Ecuadorian political life. On social networks, he defends his “citizen revolution” and attacks his opponents – right and left – with his always ferocity.

On Sunday at National Police Headquarters, Interior Minister Juan Zapata confirmed that an FBI team has arrived in Quito to help investigators identify those behind Villavicencio’s assassination. The assassin, of Colombian nationality, was killed instantly by the bodyguards of the victim. The six Colombian suspects who were arrested in the process were all on file. “The investigation is progressing,” insisted the police chief, without giving further details. Speculation is obviously rife.

“Who benefits from the crime? »

Rafael Correa and Fernando Villavicencio were bitter enemies. The journalist, who became a presidential candidate, called the former head of state a “defendant on the run”. “You are a cowardly villain,” Mr. Correa retorted to his opponent in November 2022, “your party is coming to an end.” The virulent “anti-correists” openly accuse the former president of ordering the crime. “Correa probably did not hire the killer personally,” said someone close to Mr. Villavicencio. But by publicly insulting Fernando as he did, he bears some responsibility for his murder.”

“Who benefits from the crime? retort supporters of the former president. Luisa Gonzalez was the winner before the first round of the presidential election. The supporters of the citizens’ revolution even dreamed of an immediate victory: in Ecuador, the presidency can be won with 40% of the votes in the first round, if more than ten points separate the first candidate from the second. The game-changing assassination of Mr. Villavicencio does not serve Ms. Gonzalez’s interests.

On Sunday evening, a white desk, with no one behind, appeared on the small screen. The seven candidates present observed a minute of silence in memory of Mr. Villavicencio before starting a major televised debate which lasted three hours.

Mr. Villavicencio’s Construye party had announced the name of its new candidate a little earlier. Christian Zurita, 53, also an investigative journalist, has pledged to defend the ideas and program of his late friend. His running mate, Andrea Gonzalez, 36, is maintaining his candidacy for vice-president. Mr. Zurita and Ms. Gonzalez gave a press conference in the late afternoon. Both wore bulletproof vests. Having failed to register his candidacy in time with the electoral authorities, Mr. Zurita was not allowed to participate in the televised debate. His relatives strongly protested.