Where does Germany stand before the start of the third pandemic winter? The corona protective measures have largely been lifted, the public longs for normality. However, the bare numbers speak a completely different language.
In the fight against the corona virus, Germany is steering a difficult course between containment and opening. “Learning to live with the virus” is the motto of the advocates of the greatest possible relaxation. Unlike in previous years, increasing case numbers no longer led to the threat of overburdening in the hospitals. The danger to the public health system has largely been averted, they say.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), on the other hand, sounds much more cautious in autumn 2022. With a view to the “operational situation in the health system” at the beginning of the winter half-year, there is only talk of “stabilization”. The RKI summarizes the situation as the number of severe Covid cases has not increased further recently. However, the experts see no reason to sound the all-clear. “Despite the currently stable number of cases, the infection pressure in the general population remains high in all age groups,” says the current RKI weekly report.
A random comparison of the current number of cases with the situation in autumn 2021 and 2020 actually raises serious questions. The number of new infections officially reported in the past week is well above the level of the previous year. In the seven days to Sunday, September 18, 2022, the state authorities in Germany recorded a total of 233,940 coronavirus cases. That is three and a half times more officially known infections than in the 37th calendar week of the past year. This lasted until September 19, 2021. During this period, only 62,682 new cases were recorded. In the first year of the pandemic, there were only 12,338 new infections at this point.
The bare numbers only provide a first indication of the pandemic situation. The information cannot be compared directly and without restrictions. At the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, for example, the general public had significantly fewer PCR test options than in autumn 2021. In addition, the summer wave was significantly weaker last year than in the current year. At the same time, not all positive rapid tests lead to reliable detection in the laboratory. And: According to all the knowledge available to date, the risk of becoming seriously ill with Covid or even dying is much lower for those vaccinated and immunized under omicron conditions than in autumn 2020.
But what if significantly more people get infected? In any case, the coronavirus pandemic is not over yet, as a look at the number of reported Covid deaths in a year-on-year comparison shows. In the current weekly balance for calendar week 37, the number of people registered within seven days who died in connection with a coronavirus infection adds up to 641. On average over the past four weeks, there were 84 death reports per day across Germany.
For comparison: In autumn 2021, the authorities of the federal states had to include 351 deaths in the death statistics in the comparison week. In the previous year there were only 41 deaths nationwide in the corresponding week – albeit after a comparatively low-infection summer. Certainly there were periods during the peaks of previous winter waves when the number of reported deaths was much higher. But one way or another: Significantly more Covid patients are currently dying per week than in the autumn of the two previous years.
What insights can be derived from this rough approach to classifying the overall situation? First of all: not much. The current interim status refers to comparison weeks in which Germany experienced temporary respites between stronger waves of infection in the dark winter months of 2020/21 and 2021/22. It remains to be seen how Germany will fare in the next autumn or winter wave.
The figures mentioned are therefore only suitable as initial indications for comparing the current pandemic situation with the situation in previous years. One thing is certain: In view of the high number of reported deaths, there can actually be no question of a return to normality. The virus and the course of infection are obviously still anything but harmless.
Are these findings sufficient for a reassessment of German pandemic policy? The much-vaunted protection of risk groups, including all older people in Germany, does not seem to be working any better than in 2021 under the given conditions of a smoldering infection process – measured in terms of the number of deaths. The level of immunization of the population and the progress that has been made in the treatment of Covid patients have apparently not been sufficient to reduce the number of Covid deaths to below the level of previous years.
