Nigeria, whose President Bola Tinubu currently heads the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), is maneuvering to bend the putschists who have been holding Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum since Wednesday July 26. On Sunday, subregional leaders issued a week-long ultimatum to the men of Abdourahamane Tiani, former head of the presidential guard and president of the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), for a “full return to the constitutional order”. Until Friday, it is in Abuja that the chiefs of staff of the ECOWAS countries are meeting to “work on military strategy”.
Benjamin Augé, specialist in Nigeria and researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), discusses the major role that this country is currently playing in this crisis.
Nigeria is the dominant political and economic power in West Africa. It borders Niger and the two countries have a language in common, Hausa, which has 80 million speakers in northern Nigeria and Niger. Its new president, Bola Tinubu, came to power on May 29 and, for less than a month, he has led ECOWAS. The speech he gave when he took office at the head of the regional organization focused in particular on the necessary end to coups in the region.
His credibility, even from a domestic political point of view – he has been under very strong pressure since the end of gasoline subsidies in his country in June – will depend on what he manages to do after the coup. state in Niger. Faced with the putschists, Bola Tinubu held a very firm speech and drastic economic sanctions were put in place. But if the junta in Niamey does not waver and he finally gives up on triggering the military option, that leaves him with few ways out.
He is the first Sunni religious authority in Nigeria, but it is not certain that his influence on the Nigerian military is decisive. He is more respected than feared.
The Nigerian army was notably deployed in the 1990s in Liberia and Sierra Leone [via ECOWAS mandates], and more recently in Gambia. But the situation in Niger is very different. There are many unknowns and the numerous failures of policing on the Nigerian national territory for twenty years do not plead in favor of rock solidity. We deplore violence, thefts of crude oil on an industrial scale in the Niger delta, an explosion of banditry in the northwest…
Moreover, the business team in Abuja has just been appointed and the government has not yet been formed. Its future members are currently before the Senate for validation and, for example, there is not yet a Minister of Defense. Only the chiefs of the armies have been appointed, as well as the “national security adviser”. This is Nuhu Ribadu, the first boss of the country’s financial prosecutor’s office.
It should be remembered that Bola Tinubu is not a soldier, unlike several of his predecessors since the return to democracy, such as Olusegun Obasanjo [1999-2007] or Muhammadu Buhari [2015-2023]. He has an interest in showing that he knows how to be decisive on defense issues despite his lack of experience in this area.
The question is not easy to answer, but it calls for another: will the Nigerien Armed Forces (FAN) be perfectly united to fight the Nigerian armed forces?
A possible decision to intervene by the Nigerian army under the mandate of ECOWAS and the African Union (AU) will not, I think, be made without consultation with the two military actors that matter in Niger: the United States and France. Paris knows full well that it cannot appear directly on the front line in the resolution of this crisis. France therefore relies heavily on Nigeria, with which the partnership has never been as strong as since the election of Emmanuel Macron.
