Peronism lost this weekend the governorship of the province of Chubut, a stronghold in Patagonia that it had controlled for 20 years. The defeat in these provincial elections reflects the growing electoral weakness of the ruling party in the face of the fight for the Presidency of Argentina in the upcoming elections, at the end of October.
Ignacio Torres -now a senator for the PRO (Revolutionary Proposal), which is part of the Together for Change coalition, the party of former President Macri- won with 35.7% of the votes, compared to the 34.1% obtained by the Peronist Juan Pablo Luque. “Chubut changed its history once and for all,” celebrated Torres, who from December 10 will be, at the age of 35, the youngest governor in Argentina. The PRO thus obtains its second governorship among the 24 districts into which the country is divided. Until now, it controlled only the city of Buenos Aires, which has the entity and powers of a province.
Ignacio Torres -now a senator of the PRO (Revolutionary Proposal), which is part of the Together for Change coalition, the party of former President Mauricio Macri-
The defeat of Peronism in Chubut can be seen from various angles. One, important, is the geographic itself. Patagonia, made up of five provinces, is the most sparsely populated region in the country, but it has a large symbolic capital, as a strategic region full of wealth.
Comodoro Rivadavia, Argentina’s main oil city, is in Chubut, a province of contrasts. Comodoro is a bastion of Peronism, which historically claimed the YPF oil company as a jewel of the State, although it was the party that privatized the company and sold it to the Spanish Repsol, to expropriate it years later. In other sectors of the province, especially in the cities near the Andes Mountains and the capital, Rawson, Peronism has lost strength.
A small province in electoral terms -350,000 registered residents-, Chubut is symbolic due to its size, 224,000 square kilometers, eight times Catalonia, and its wealth: oil, gas, fishing, tourism.
Four years ago, the two options for governor presented by Peronism added up to 75% of the votes. But many things have changed in this time. A very important one is that the province is bankrupt. Chubut was frequently in the news due to the strikes of teachers to whom the Peronist Mariano Arcioni did not pay his salaries.
That aspect, the economic bankruptcy of Chubut, was highlighted by Patricia Bullrich, presidential candidate for Together for Change (JxC), who starred in the photo on Sunday night: hug and kiss Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, mayor of Buenos Aires and the another contender for the presidency in the opposition coalition.
Argentina will celebrate this August 13 a presidential primary, the PASO (Open, Simultaneous and Compulsory Primaries), in which the key questions are three: who will win the internal one of the JxC coalition, how far will the electoral support for Peronism fall and what percentage of votes will be obtained by the disruptive Javier Milei. The highly discredited Argentine pollsters give, in less than two weeks, an advantage for JxC and a remarkably solid position for Sergio Massa, the candidate who promotes the majority of Peronism.
A recent survey published in Argentina gives Sergio Massa, the pre-candidate promoted by the majority of Peronism, 26% of the votes in the presidential primaries, a figure to which 3% is added for Juan Grabois, the pre-candidate of the left of Peronism . For their part, Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta, from the opposition coalition JxC, would share 15% each and Javier Milei, 22%.
Massa has been the Economy Minister of the battered President Alberto Fernández for a year. Under his management, inflation climbed above 120% per year and the peso devalued sharply. But he is confident of being the single candidate with the most votes in the primaries.
All in all, the JxC opposition coalition understands that the victory in Chubut, which adds to other falls in provinces that were in the hands of Peronism for decades, such as San Luis and San Juan, marks a path to electoral success. In this context, the embrace between Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta, protagonists of a bitter inmate, was a relief for those who support the opposition.
“Today we are celebrating Nacho’s victory in Chubut,” said Bullrich. “I don’t know who will win on August 13, I don’t know if it’s going to be Horacio or it’s going to be me. But the one who wins leads and the one who loses accompanies.”
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