Is the world poised for another war of geopolitical significance? Opinions differ on this. As early as spring, the director of the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel, Joachim Krause, warned in the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” of a “double crisis that nobody wanted to admit”. Russia and China would trigger regional crises in their fight against the West in Ukraine and Taiwan respectively. Unlike Russia, China has not gone to extremes so far, but recent events are fueling fear and causing great nervousness internationally. “The probability of war or a serious incident is low,” tweeted Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the think tank German Marshall Fund. But even the Russian invasion of Ukraine was considered by many to be unlikely.
The parallels in the development of both conflicts are striking:
The war in Ukraine has now been going on for more than five months. Much of the world is hoping that the parallels between the two crises have ended and that no more war will break out — except for Aleksey Zhuravlyov, the leader of the nationalist Rodina party, which supports Putin. The Duma deputy said it would have been “good” for Russia if China had shot down the plane carrying Nancy Pelosi. This would have opened a second front. US President Joe Biden has also pledged military support to Taiwan. It would be a direct confrontation of the great powers.
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Sources: ZDF, NDR, Twitter account Bonnie Glaser, “Neue Zürcher Zeitung”, “Newsweek”
