Isolated on the international scene since the launch of his military offensive in Ukraine in 2022, the master of the Kremlin can always count on the support, or the neutrality, of many African countries. Vladimir Putin welcomes his African partners to Saint Petersburg on Thursday for a Russia-Africa summit. Among the clouds that will have to be dispelled: the concerns of the countries of the continent after the abandonment by Moscow of an agreement which allowed the export of millions of tons of Ukrainian cereals. “We intend to further develop [cooperation]” with African countries, Putin said in a welcome letter sent to participants and published on the Kremlin website on Wednesday.
To this day, therefore, representatives of African states continue to join the former imperial capital, like the delegations from Mozambique and Libya whose arrival was made public Thursday morning by the public news agency TASS. In Saint Petersburg, delegations from 49 African countries – including 17 heads of state – are indeed expected, in particular South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, despite “unprecedented pressure” put, according to the Kremlin, by Westerners to deter Africans from attending.
South Africa’s presidency said in a statement on Wednesday that the leaders will discuss with Vladimir Putin steps to create “conducive conditions for a path to peace between Russia and Ukraine.” Ukraine, precisely, will be mentioned at the summit on Friday during a “working lunch between Vladimir Putin and a group of African heads of state”, announced the Kremlin.
During the second edition of this Russia-Africa summit, after the first one which took place in Sochi in 2019, Vladimir Putin will conduct bilateral talks with several leaders and will speak at the plenary session. According to his diplomatic adviser, Yuri Ushakov, the Russian president “will give a big speech” in which he will discuss his vision for Russian-African relations and “the formation of a new world order”.
The hot topic of the summit will undoubtedly be Moscow’s abandonment of a crucial agreement which has allowed Ukraine since the summer of 2022 to export, including to Africa, its cereals through the Black Sea, despite the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports. In one year, this agreement had allowed the release of nearly 33 million tonnes of grain from Ukrainian ports, helping to stabilize world food prices and avert the risk of shortages.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday urged African leaders to demand answers on the grain crisis that has plunged the poorest countries into crisis. “They know exactly who is responsible for the current situation,” Blinken said of the leaders. “I expect Russia to hear this message clearly from its African partners,” he said during a visit to New Zealand.
In recent days, Russia has tried to reassure its African partners, saying it understands their “concern” on the subject and ensuring that it is ready to export its cereals “free of charge” to the countries that need it most. For Moscow and its partners, “it is necessary to find common ground, to explain themselves […] on current issues, for example on the grain agreement”, underlined to AFP Vsevolod Sviridov , expert of the Center for African Studies of the Moscow Higher School of Economics. And in general, “the framework in which Russia and Africa interact has changed profoundly”, between the Covid-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, he observes. “So obviously you have to redefine [those] relationships. Mr. Putin has already spoken on Wednesday with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and then with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, touting their joint projects in the field of energy.
In recent years, Russia has sought to strengthen its ties with Africa, notably through the presence of the paramilitary group Wagner. Sign of this interest, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, has already made two tours on the continent since the beginning of the year, trying to attract him to the camp of Moscow, erected as a bulwark against the “imperialism” and Western “neo-colonialism”.
But Wagner’s failed rebellion in Russia at the end of June today casts doubt on the future of his operations on the continent. The big rout planned in Saint Petersburg comes a month before the BRICS summit in South Africa, to which the Russian president, targeted by an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC), has given up going, putting an end to months of speculation.
